Stock Market Indicators: S&P 500 Presidential Cycles

Stock Market Indicators: S&P 500

Presidential Cycles

Yardeni Research, Inc.

March 31, 2020

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683 eyardeni@

Joe Abbott

732-497-5306 jabbott@

Please visit our sites at blog.

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

Stocks & Politics

1

First & Second Terms

2

Presidential Cycles

3-4

S&P 500 Index & P/E

5

Misc.

6-7

March 31, 2020 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P 500 Presidential Cycles

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Stocks & Politics

Figure 1.

6004

5004

FDR

4004

Truman

3004

2004

EisenhowerKennedy Nixon Carter Reagan

Johnson Ford

Bush I

6004

Clinton Bush II Obama Trump

5004

4004

Mar 3004

2004

S&P 500 INDEX* & PRESIDENTS

1004

BLUE DEMOCRATS vs. RED REPUBLICANS

1004

(ratio scale)



285.6

118.7

78.7

3.5 26.3

220.9

203.0

-31.6

140.3

4

4

30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

* End-of-month daily data through 8/31/2016. Note: Blue (red) shades represents Democrats (Republicans) in White House. Data above timeline are percentage changes in S&P 500 for each shade. Source: Standard & Poor's.

Figure 2.

4005

3205

2405

S&P 500 INDEX* & MAJORITY CONGRESSIONAL PARTIES IN BOTH HOUSES

1605

BLUE DEMOCRATS vs. RED REPUBLICANS

(ratio scale)

805

4005 3205 Mar 2405 1605

805



15.2 -0.7 74.8 35.4

277.3

78.4

89.6

187.5 -33.4 61.2 -11.3 63.7 5.4

5

5

40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

* End-of-month daily data through 8/31/2016. Note: Shaded areas represent periods where one party holds both Houses regardless of who was in the White House. Blue shade represents Democrats. Red shade represents Republicans. Data above timeline are percentage changes for each shade. Source: Standard & Poor's.

Page 1 / March 31, 2020 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P 500 Presidential Cycles

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Figure 3.

5004 4004 Roosevelt 3004

2004

First & Second Terms

Eisenhower Kennedy Nixon

Truman

Johnson Ford

Carter

Bush I

Bush II Obama

Reagan

Clinton

5004 Trump 4004

Mar 3004 2004

1004

1004

S&P 500 INDEX* & PRESIDENTIAL FIRST TERMS

(ratio scale)



149.3

74.8 75.6

45.8 13.7

26.3 23.2

56.9 70.0

-8.2

57.9

4

4

30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

* End-of-month daily data through 8/31/2016. Note: Shaded areas represent first term of each president. Blue shade represents Democrats. Red shade represents Republicans. Data above timeline are percentage changes for each shade. Source: Standard & Poor's.

Figure 4.

4204

3504

Roosevelt

2804

2104

1404

Eisenhower

Nixon

Reagan

4204

Clinton Bush II Obama

3504

Mar 2804

2104

1404

704

S&P 500 INDEX* & PRESIDENTIAL SECOND TERMS

704

(ratio scale)



-38.4

24.5

-9.0

66.1

78.2 -25.5 52.2

4

4

30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

* End-of-month daily data through 8/31/2016. Note: Shaded areas represent second term of each president. Blue shade represents Democrats. Red shade represents Republicans. Data above timeline are percentage changes for each shade. Source: Standard & Poor's.

Page 2 / March 31, 2020 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P 500 Presidential Cycles

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Presidential Cycles

Figure 5.

4203 3503

2803

2103

S&P 500 INDEX* &

1403

FIRST YEAR OF PRESIDENTIAL TERMS: 1928-now (average = 5.2%, ratio scale)

703

4203 3503

Mar

2803

2103

1403

703



-11.9 46.6 -38.6 -17.9 30.7 10.3 -6.6 -14.3 23.1 9.1 -11.4 -17.4 -11.5 -9.7 26.3 27.3 7.1 31.0 -13.0 3.0 23.5 29.6 3

25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20

* End-of-month daily data through 12/31/2016. Note: Shaded areas are the first years of presidential terms. Data above timeline are percentage changes for the first year using daily price data. Source: Standard & Poor's.

3 25

Figure 6.

4203 3503

2803

2103

S&P 500 INDEX* &

1403

SECOND YEAR OF PRESIDENTIAL TERMS: 1928-now (average = 4.8%, ratio scale)

703

4203 3503

Mar

2803

2103

1403

703



-28.5 -5.9 25.2 12.4 -11.9 21.8 45.0 38.1 -11.8 -13.1 -0.1 -29.7 1.1 14.8 14.6 -6.6 -1.5 26.7 -23.4 13.6 12.8 11.4

3

3

25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25

* End-of-month daily data through 12/31/2016. Note: Shaded areas are the second years of presidential terms. Data above timeline are percentage changes for the second year using daily price data Source: Standard & Poor's.

Page 3 / March 31, 2020 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P 500 Presidential Cycles

Yardeni Research, Inc.



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