S&P 500 Buybacks & Dividends - Yardeni Research
Corporate Finance Briefing: S&P 500 Buybacks & Dividends
Yardeni Research, Inc.
September 1, 2023
Dr. Edward Yardeni
516-972-7683 eyardeni@
Joe Abbott
jabbott@
Mali Quintana
480-664-1333 aquintana@
Please visit our sites at blog.
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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
Buybacks & Dividends
3-6
Buybacks
7
S&P 1500/500/400/600 Divisors
8
Buybacks & Dividends
9
Buybacks & Dividends as % of Operating Earnings
10
S&P 500 Sectors Quarterly Buybacks
11
S&P 500 Sectors Cumulative Buybacks Since Q1-2009
12
S&P 500 Sectors Quarterly Dividends
13
S&P 500 Sectors Four Quarter Buybacks
14
S&P 500 Sectors Quarterly Buybacks+Dividends
15
September 1, 2023 / S&P 500 Buybacks & Dividends
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Buybacks & Dividends
Figure 1.
1250
S&P 500 BUYBACKS 1150 (billion dollars, annualized)
1050
950
Actual x 4 (862.1)
4-Quarter Sum (857.2)
850
1250
1150
1050
950
Q1
850
750
750
650
650
550
550
450
450
350
350
250
250
150
150
50
50
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Source: Standard & Poor's.
Figure 2.
600
S&P 500 DIVIDENDS 550 (billion dollars, annualized)
600
Q2 550
500
500
450
Actual x 4 (572.2)
450
400
4-Quarter Sum (575.0)
400
350
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Source: Standard & Poor's.
Page 3 / September 1, 2023 / S&P 500 Buybacks & Dividends
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Buybacks & Dividends
Figure 3.
300
S&P 500 BUYBACKS (billion dollars, quarterly, nsa)
250
200
300
250 Q1
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Source: Standard & Poor's.
Figure 4.
175
S&P 500 DIVIDENDS (billion dollars, quarterly)
150
125
175
150 Q2
125
100
100
75
75
50
50
25
25
0
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Source: Standard & Poor's.
Page 4 / September 1, 2023 / S&P 500 Buybacks & Dividends
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Buybacks & Dividends
Figure 5.
5
S&P 500 DIVIDENDS & BUYBACKS (trillion dollars, annualized)
4
Buybacks
3
Dividends
S&P 500 Index
5 Aug
4
3
2
2
Q1
1
1
Q2
0
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Source: Standard & Poor's.
Figure 6.
1200
S&P 500 BUYBACKS 1000 (billion dollars, annualized)
800
1200
1000 Q1
800
600
600
400
400
200
200
0
0
16
16
14
S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS YIELD & CORPORATE BOND YIELD
14
(percent)
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
4
BoFA Merrill Lynch AAA
Corporate Bond Yield (5.0)
8A/u2g5
6
4
2
S&P 500 Forward Earnings Yield* (5.4)
0
2
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
* Forward earnings (time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year) divided by S&P 500 stock price index. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, Standard & Poor's and Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Page 5 / September 1, 2023 / S&P 500 Buybacks & Dividends
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Buybacks & Dividends
Figure 7.
1800
S&P 500 BUYBACKS & DIVIDENDS
1600
(billion dollars, annualized)
1400
1800
1600
Q1
1400
1200
1200
1000
Total* (1429.3)
1000
800
800
600
600
400
400
200
200
0
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
1300
1300
1100
1100
900 Buybacks* (857.2)
700
Q1
900
700
500
500
300
300
100
100
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
600
600
Q2
500
500
Dividends* (575.0)
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
*4-quarter sum. Source: Standard & Poor's.
Page 6 / September 1, 2023 / S&P 500 Buybacks & Dividends
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Buybacks
Figure 8.
600
600
TOTAL GROSS ISSUANCE OF STOCKS MINUS S&P 500 BUYBACKS
400
(billion dollars)
400
200
200
0
0
-200
-200
-400
-400
-600 -800 -1000
Total Gross Issuance of Stocks Minus S&P 500 Buybacks (annualized)
Corporate Equities: Net Issuance Nonfinancial Corporate Business (4-quarter sum)
-600 Q1
Q1
-800
-1000
-1200
-1200
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Source: Federal Reserve Board and Standard & Poor's Corporation.
Page 7 / September 1, 2023 / S&P 500 Buybacks & Dividends
Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 1500/500/400/600 Divisors
Figure 9.
50000
S&P 1500 DIVISOR*
48000
46000
44000
42000
40000
9/1
38000 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
9750
S&P 1500 DIVISOR*
9250
8750
8250
9/1
7750
10
S&P 1500 DIVISOR*
8
(yearly percent change)
6
4
2
9/1
0
-2
-4
-6 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
10
S&P 1500 DIVISOR* (yearly percent change)
8
6
4
2
0 9/1
-2
7250 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
-4 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
3500
S&P 400 MIDCAP DIVISOR*
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
9/1
500 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
25
S&P 400 MIDCAP DIVISOR*
20
(yearly percent change)
15
10
5 9/1
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
2500
S&P 600 SMALLCAP DIVISOR*
2000
1500
1000 9/1
500 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
S&P 600 DIVISOR* (yearly percent change)
20
15
9/1
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
* Divisor is used to ensure that changes in shares outstanding, capital actions, and the addition or deletion of stocks to the index do not change the level of the index. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation.
Page 8 / September 1, 2023 / S&P 500 Buybacks & Dividends
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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