Current Trends and Future Shifts in Florida s Housing Market

[Pages:27]Current Trends and Future Shifts in Florida's Housing Market

Lesley Deutch Principal

John Burns Real Estate Consulting

Mike Belmont President

Minto Communities ? USA

Jim Leiferman President

Mattamy Homes

Chris Ward

Principal

Pablo Creek Land

Session Outline

Quick Florida Housing Market Overview

WHAT are they looking

for?

WHERE: What

markets see strong growth?

WHO are the buyers?

WHEN will they buy?

WHY/HOW: How do we overcome obstacles to

meet demand?

FLORIDA HOUSING MARKET OVERVIEW

Current Housing Market Rankings

JBREC MARKET HOTNESS INDEX FOR 50 LARGEST MARKETS

Florida's Economy Is Growing, Led by Service Jobs

JACKSONVILLE 15,800

TA M PA 28,700

S A R A S O TA 11,200

FORT MYERS -1,200

NAPLES 4,700

ORLANDO 36,800

WEST PALM BEACH 8,900

FT. LAUDERDALE 25,200

MIAMI 27,900

Florida's Single-Family Permit Growth by Market

Tampa

Single-Family Permit Growth (TTM) Trailing 12 Month, YOY % Change (Dec -17)

19.0%

Fort Myers Jacksonville Fort Lauderdale

18.0% 14.4% 13.6%

West Palm Beach Orlando Sarasota

3.9% 2.9%

12.9%

Naples

Miami -20.2%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

2.7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Florida's Affordability by Market

Burns Affordability Index (Feb. 2018)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

Miami

8.7

Naples

8.7

West Palm Beach

8.6

Fort Lauderdale

8.6

Fort Myers

8.4

Sarasota

8.3

Orlando

7.3

Tampa

6.7

Jacksonville

6.2

PANHANDLE

Rising Activity

ORLANDO

Job GoroAwvtahilaabnlde lDanivdearst erelatively HoluoswinpgricBeassise driving interest from developers/builders.

o DiveroseLeomopklionygmtoenctabpatusree 55+

allows fodSrewmAiadRneAdraSnOgeTAin

o o

FWoDpsHdOureeoEobmGehmmRIdmSsonoaAuaoeTpmfTaoncnielpRrdtdedlLckSwrPtFeiaei"GsysiAactbisAdtptli.nOelldseralUeisJydoLsheasnRtoswaDrdcoMgsCeoTvayonttE'nifeoshnlvolBtgMRndherBariidenEarynsDaYeocoiyAcn2iArEdusm-uog0WCrRsLspG1abtsaHaEoS8nuelcmatdcmotlkln"

Plan ?

AoooMooprLdWekFstPaooioesrixtioMmrrorweWpiyvoIpBhksnldsnkaieaRaBRItnroetguatu-ceeAnlrpeIgCmettaeoydrctmsidpprmeaecpmpMotDsineerirnachrnmipliuseen,daacsiOhIssgrvenOccaneeiNAuiohn;asigtniendsdairbvosfcraAemgldtfteeauimeafsioanfoPenpdrofv.orrnbeagnndueadlrLasbmdtobtaipaisiRl,Eunar;lfir,biefLlycibaliSocEdoeieeaillprebleeossisrkidttiutsk,eyydaiefsipiosllnbrdaiyiersotigenlc/itrdoyBnopdnlaitya

o o

SfSmrolianomrgwkooldeefootoofrowIpCaRsaiennolotmnioaofSTNgHpieCnpwlainiltoliMMpunnodirynoxediroldnbmoamiytdecacdbn-hcuperoduefecwgipredyrflrnoesolosnisereeecsedmanstnrttremseredireossstatimaaainntae(onldrbdnsbadnsunageu,oolncidrcenlnmyDtnkyiattsdgeieflooaobaarrtnbrnnsirehtasiioeusdoceialrinyongatsieghmmndtirlFeslindofgrrot m

and HiailnoevaehFsastotmersail)ydyb.uyer presence is

increasing

JACKSONVILLE

Growing Rapidly

o Boomtown in St. Johns County

o DemandTisAsMtroPnAger for

under $J4o0b0sKDriven o School district drives o Ahfofoursdinagbidliteymisanstdil;l i#m1pcaocnt cern o Sfetreosnrgiseinmgployment growth is

increasing overall demand

o Rising supply has made builders extremely competitive

o Tampa seeing influx of younger residents looking for jobs

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