Urban-Suburban Migration in the United States, 1955-2000 ...

Urban-Suburban Migration in the United States, 1955-2000

by

Todd K. Gardner U.S. Census Bureau

CES 16-08

February, 2016

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Abstract This study uses census microdata from 1960 to 2010 to look at the rates of suburbanization in the 100 largest metro areas. Looking at the racial and ethnic composition of the population, and then further breaking down these groups by income, it's clear that more affluent people were more likely to move to the suburbs. Also, the White non-Hispanic population has long been the most suburbanized group. A majority of the White population lived in suburbs by 1960 in the 100 largest metro areas, while most of the Black non-Hispanic population lived in urban core areas as late as 2000. The Hispanic and Asian populations went from majority urban to majority suburban during this period. Keyword: suburbanization, race, ethnicity

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* This work is released to inform interested parties of ongoing research and to encourage discussion of work in progress. Any views or opinions expressed in the paper are the authors' own and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of the U.S. Census Bureau. Please direct correspondence to Todd Gardner, U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies, 4600 Silver Hill Rd., Washington, DC 20233, or via email at Todd.K.Gardner@.

Todd Gardner

Urban-Suburban Migration in the United States, 1955-2000

Introduction

This study uses census microdata from 1960 to 2000 to look at the urban-suburban migration in the 100 largest metro areas during this period. The population is divided into five racial/ethnic groups: non-Hispanic whites, non-Hispanic blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and other races. These groups are then further divided based on household income.

Methodology

Income ? For this study, households are categorized by income using the poverty measure for income earned in the year preceding each decennial census. The migration figures, then, are limited to only those households in the poverty universe. Households are divided into three categories:

Low income ? Those below the poverty threshold Medium Income ? Income above the poverty threshold but less than three times the

poverty threshold High Income ? More than three times the poverty threshold

Racial/Ethnic Categories ? The resident population and the composition of the local government workforce uses the following categories:

Hispanic ? Hispanic ethnicity (see note below for how this was determined in each year) of any race. In this study Hispanic ethnicity was determined first and treated as a mutually exclusive category with the race groups.

White Non-Hispanic ? White in 1960, 1970, 1980 and 1990, and White alone in the 2000 census, and not of Hispanic origin.

Black Non-Hispanic ? Black, African American, or Negro in 1960, 1970, 1980 and 1990, and Black alone in the 2000 census, and not of Hispanic origin.

Asian ? For the 1960 census the only Asian nationalities explicitly listed on the questionnaire were Japanese, Chinese and Filipino. In addition to these categories, Korean was also included on the 1970 census questionnaire. The list also included Vietnamese and Asian Indian on the 1980 and 1990 census questionnaires. On all forms a box was provided to specify another race category. The box on the 1960, 1970 and 1980 forms was for any "other" category. On the 1990 questionnaire a separate box was labeled "Other API", which stood for "Asian or Pacific Islander", and a separate entry field was given for "Other Asian" on the Census 2000 form. This study uses the categories as given in each census, even though fewer national groups were listed on the early census forms.

Other - All other race categories not covered above, and all mulitirace categories in the 2000 census.

Hispanic Ethnicity ? Since 1980 the decennial census has included questions on Hispanic origin. In the 1970 census, the Census Bureau experimented with a few different variables to establish Hispanic ethnicity, notably "Puerto Rican Stock," "Spanish Origin or Descent" and "Spanish

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Todd Gardner

Urban-Suburban Migration in the United States, 1955-2000

Surname", all of which are used to establish Hispanic ethnicity for 1970 in this study. The "Spanish Surname" variable is included in the 1960 and 1970 data, although it is only coded for residents of California, Texas, Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado. In this study Hispanic ethnicity was established for 1960 by using a combination of birthplace, parental birthplace, language spoken at home, and Spanish surname.

Metropolitan areas and central cities ? This study uses the current metropolitan statistical area definitions (as published by the Office of Management and Budget in February, 2013) of the 100 most populous metro areas as of the 2010 census. The February, 2013, definitions use counties as the basic geographic unit, and these county definitions are applied to all years of data used in this study. This study also tabulates figures for "traditional central cities," which are those places that were designated as central cities of metro areas no later than 1960 for those areas classified as metropolitan by 1960. A few of the 100 largest metro areas did not achieve metropolitan status until 1970 or 1980. For these areas, this study considers the cities of that were designated when the metro area was first delineated as traditional central cities. These include San Buenaventura (Ventura), CA, Edinburg, TX, McAllen, TX, Boise City, ID, Santa Rosa, CA, and Modesto, CA, which were the original central cities in metro areas initially defined in 1970, and Poughkeepsie, NY, Sarasota, FL, Bradenton, FL, Lakeland, FL, Melbourne, FL, and Titusville, FL, which were the original central cities in metro areas initially defined in 1980.

Results

Looking at the 100 largest metro areas as they are currently defined, census data from the 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000 censuses reveal continuous suburban growth in the United States. Using historical central city designations (that is, cities classified as "central cities" at the start of this era) to distinguish between urban and suburban territory, the 100 largest metropolitan areas were already majority suburban in 1960, with 56.6 percent of the population residing outside of the central cities. By 1970 the suburban population had risen above 60 percent, and by 2000 almost 70 percent of the population of large metropolitan areas lived outside of central cities. The decline in central city residence among the White non-Hispanic population (hereafter referred to as "White") was particularly dramatic, dropping from 39.1 percent of the population in 1960 to 21.3 percent in 2000. Though minority populations have grown more rapidly than the White population, Whites constituted a majority of the metropolitan population in all regions throughout this period.

The Black non-Hispanic population (hereafter referred to as "Black") was the most urban population throughout this period, as 71.1 percent of the Black population lived in central cities in 1960. Even though the black population was also suburbanizing, a majority of the Black metropolitan population (56.1 percent) lived in central cities in 2000. The South was home to nearly half of the Black metropolitan population, while the Hispanic metropolitan population, despite rapid growth in all regions, remained concentrated (43.7 percent) in the West at the end of the twentieth century. The Hispanic population living in the 100 largest metropolitan areas numbered just over 4 million in 1960 but increased to over 28 million by 2000. During that time the Hispanic population went from majority urban to majority suburban, as the population living outside central cities went from 37.5 percent in 1960 to 56.5 percent in 2000.

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Urban-Suburban Migration in the United States, 1955-2000

Each census from 1960 to 2000 asked respondents to identify where they lived five years before that census. Comparing information about where respondents were living at the time of each census with where they had lived five years before reveals that migration from central cities to suburban areas increased every decade following the 1950s. That is, the percentage of people reporting that they lived in a central city five years before the census and then moved to a suburban area in the same metropolitan area by the time they filled out their census form increased from 10.3 percent in the period from 1955 to 1960, to 12.8 percent from 1965 to 1970, and then steadily increased to 15.0 percent by the 2000 census. Of course, people were also moving in the other direction, from suburbs to central cities, but thus migration was smaller. Although the percentage of the people moving from suburbs to central cities rose from 2.1 percent during the period from 1955 to 1960, to 3.6 percent from 1965 to 1970, the rate fell thereafter to 3.1 percent by the 2000 census. The urban-suburban net migration rate compares the number of people moving from central cities to suburbs with those moving in the opposite direction. The urban-suburban net migration rate (migrants from suburbs to central cities minus migrants from central cities to suburbs per 1000 central city residents) remained fairly consistent throughout this period. The net migration rate for the general population from 1955 to 1960 was -69.4 per 1000 central city residents. That is, more people were moving from central cities to the suburbs than in the opposite direction, which results in a negative number. The outward migration even slightly increased to -74.0 by the 2000 census.

Between 1955 and 1960 Whites by far had the highest rates of suburbanization in the United States. This was the case in every region, although Hispanics had a higher urban-suburban net migration (-75.7) than Whites (-61.3) in the West. Of course, the Hispanic population was relatively small at this time. White suburbanization in the 1950s was occurring the most rapidly in the Midwest, particularly in industrial centers, such as Cleveland, St. Louis and Detroit. In the following decade, white suburbanization accelerated in the South, as well as in Sunbelt cities, such as Las Vegas and Miami. Through the rest of the twentieth century, the highest rates of suburbanization among Whites continued to be in the Sunbelt, though the suburbanization of the White population continued in almost all of the 100 largest metro areas. In later decades suburbanization rates among the non-White population, particularly Hispanics and Asians, increased but White urban-suburban net migration was consistently higher than all other groups.

The suburbanization of the Black population changed dramatically in the second half of the twentieth century. Between 1955 and 1960, the flows of Black migrants between cities and suburbs were almost equal. In fact, in large metro areas in the South, more Blacks moved from suburbs to central cities than the other way around. This was the case in the Midwest in the following decade, as Black rates of suburbanization remained low. By the 1970s, however, the Black population began to moving out to the suburbs at increasing rates, although the Black urban-suburban net migration rate was substantially lower than among Whites in all regions except the West. The highest rates of Black suburbanization were in the same Sunbelt metro areas that saw rapid suburbanization of the White population in the later decades of the late-twentieth century, particularly Miami, Las Vegas and Orlando.

Even more striking are the varying rates of suburbanization by income. Using the poverty threshold to divide the population into low-income households (those living in poverty), middle-income households (not in poverty but less than three times the poverty threshold), and

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