Consumer Acceptance of Electric Vehicles in the US - US EPA

Consumer Acceptance of Electric Vehicles in the US

Mobile Source Technical Review Subcommittee

Drew Kodjak, Executive Director Washington DC December 2012

Outline

Consumer Profiles. If demographic profiles of EV early adopters are accurate, most surveys indicate that the initial market size is quite limited.

Sales Forecasts. Wide range of expectations about consumer enthusiasm for battery electrics.

Market Barriers. Consumer concerns include price differential, range, recharging infrastructure, speed of recharge.

Public Policy. Sustained supporting policies including price incentives for EVs over the long-term (to 2020 and beyond) will extremely important.

Consumer Profiles

Early Adopters, Early Majority, Advocates, Moderates, Resistors . . .

Consumer profiles

Early adopter: similar to early adopters of hybrids - young, high income, EV as second vehicle, concentrated in Southern California with good weather and recharging infrastructure.

Early majority: 1.3 million in this segment based on demographic attributes: ? Higher-than-average income ($114k) ? Urban or suburban residence ? Private garage with electrical power ? Low weekly mileage (100 miles) ? Environmental sensitivity ? Concern about dependence on foreign oil ? Political activity, and ? Willingness to pay for convenience.

Purpose: Assess future demand for EVs. Method: Interviews with executives from major auto companies, start ups, energy companies, dealers, and 2,000 current vehicle owners.

US Outlook

? EV models in the US include Chevy Volt, Nissan Leaf, Tesla Roadster, iMiEV, Ford C Max Energi, Toyota Plug-in.

? BEV sales projection: 107K in 2020, or 1% of LDV sales.

Profile of US BEV Consumer (based on HEV

buyers): Most prominent characteristic is

higher education: 42% postgrads v. 25%.

. Other factors ? age, marital status, income ?

largely similar.

Purpose: Estimate demand for

Purchasing behavior: HEV buyers cite gas HEVs and BEVs.

mileage 90% compared to 40% all buyers; environmental impact 70% v. 10%; Advanced technology 70% v. 32%.

Relevant Finding: Just under 2% of global sales by 2020; 1% in US.

Differences with other buyers: HEV buyers care far less about interior comfort and exterior styling compared to all buyers.

Regional Mix: EU (62%), China (21%), US (7.5%).

Corporate leader: RenaultNissan (33% market).

Finding: Significant gap between consumer

expectations and EV performance.

? Range Gap: Expectations outpaced reality by

factor of 2 or 3. Energy density expected to

increase 20 to 50% by 2020.

? Recharge time: less than 2 hours (Japan less

than 30 minutes); only small percentage

viewed 8 hour recharge as acceptable.

? Price premium: Majority of consumers not

willing to pay a premium; EVs 50% price

premium.

? Purchase price: Vast majority of consumers

expect to pay less than $30,000.

? Fuel price: With higher fuel prices, consumers

more interested in EVs.

? Fuel Efficiency: When fleet fuel economy

reaches 50 mpg, consumers less interested in

EVs.

?

Bottom line: When consumer expectations

compared to existing products, market size limited

to 2 to 4% of population in countries surveyed. ?

?

Global study to understand consumer attitudes towards battery electrics. Surveyed 13,000 individuals in 17 countries. Conducted November 2010 to May 2011

EV Sales Forecasts

CARB JD Power Boston Consulting Deloitte

Projected BEV Penetration Rates, 2020

Percent

10 9 8 7 6

0.676 million 5 vehicles

4 3 2 1 0

US

1.020 million vehicles

0.200 million vehicles

EU

Japan

1.767 million vehicles

ARB 2020 target (2.9%)

4.029 million vehicles

China

Global

Roland Berger (high case) Deutsche Bank

Boston Consulting Group (mid case) J. D. Power

Advanced Automotive Batteries

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