Global and U.S. electric vehicle trends

[Pages:22]Global and U.S. electric vehicle trends

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Overview

? Global electric vehicle (EV) trends

? Sales, EV production volume growth, EV cost parity timing ? Top global EV markets ? Automaker announcements ? EV industrial competitiveness by country ? Canada EV sales - top

? U.S. trends

? Policy developments ? National and leading EV markets

? Zero-emission heavy-duty commercial freight vehicles

? More complex technology, policy space

2

Global electric vehicle growth

? Annual global EV sales surpassed 2 million/year in 2018 (5 million cumulative) ? Mostly the sales are in China, Europe, and the U.S.

? These markets have policy, incentives, charging infrastructure, local action

Annual electric vehicle sales

2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000

500,000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Rest of world Japan China Sweden Netherlands France United Kingdom Germany Norway Canada United States

3 Source: EV-

Global electric vehicle growth

Electric vehicles sales EV sales by battery supplier

? Annual global EV production surpassed 2 million/year in 2018 ? There are now 10 automaker groups selling over 80,000 EVs per year

? Battery production: 5 companies supplying batteries over 200,000 EVs per year

Electric vehicle sales by automaker

2,000 ,000 1,500 ,000 1,000 ,000

500,0 00

Electric vehicle sales by battery supplier

2,000 ,000

Other companies General Motors Hyundai-Kia Volkswagen SAIC Geely-Volvo BMW Renault-Nissan BAIC BYD Tesla

1,500 ,000 1,000 ,000

500,0 00

Other companies Farasis Energy Hefei Guoxuan GS Yuasa AESC SATBS Samsung SDI BYD LG Chem CATL Panasonic

0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

4 Sources: EV-Volumes and

ICCT

Volume and innovation drive EV costs down

? Battery cost reductions enable electric vehicle cost parity

? Parity points shown below for cars: 2024-2029 for 150-300-mile electric range

? Parity points for crossovers and SUVs tend to be several years later

Conv entio nal

BEV150

BEV200

BEV250

BEV300

$40,0 00

$30,0 00

$20,0 00 2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

Conventional BEV (300 mile) BEV (250 mile) BEV (200 mile) BEV (150 mile)

2030

Vehicle price

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Based on ICCT, 2019. Update on electric vehicle costs in the United States through 2030.

Top EV markets have a complete policy package

? 44% of world's EVs are in just 25 markets in China, Europe, Japan, US

? Each market benefits from regulations, incentives, infrastructure, model availability ? These areas are striving to overcome all the prevailing electric vehicle barriers

Seattle

San Francisco San Jose Los Angeles San Diego

New York

Bergen Oslo

London Paris

Stockholm Amsterdam

Beijing

Tianjin Qingdao

Zhengzhou

Tokyo

Chongqing Wuhan

Changsha

Kyoto Shanghai Hangzhou

Guangzhou Shenzhen

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Based on total electric vehicles sales through 2017

See Hall, Cui, & Lutsey, 2018.

Automakers increasingly share all-electric vision

Electric vehicle sales

? Automaker announcements by 2025:

? Hundreds of new EV models, over $200b in investments, and 15m EVs/year ? Vehicle deployment would lead to higher volume than required by regulations

15,000,000

10,000,000

5,000,000

0 2020

U.S. Europe

DoBnMgfWeng Mercedes

Tesla

General Motors

Geely

BAIC Chonging Changan

Volkwagen

2021

2022

2023

2024

Government regulations (adopted and strongest proposals under consideration)

China 2025

Toyota

Nissan Renault Mitsubishi

Automaker announcements

by 2025

7 Based on company announcements for plug-in vehicles Report:

Industrial competitiveness

Canada EV sales in global context, top EV models, vehicle sales and production statistics

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