FLORIDA: BIDEN COMPETITIVE ACROSS STATE - Monmouth University

Please attribute this information to:

Monmouth University Poll

West Long Branch, NJ 07764 monmouth.edu/polling

Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Released: Tuesday, September 15, 2020

Contact: PATRICK MURRAY 732-979-6769 (cell); 732-263-5858 (office) pdmurray@monmouth.edu Follow on Twitter: @PollsterPatrick

FLORIDA: BIDEN COMPETITIVE ACROSS STATE

Military vote weak for incumbent

West Long Branch, NJ ? Joe Biden holds a 3 to 5 point lead over Donald Trump in Florida, depending on a range of likely voter models. The Monmouth ("Mon-muth") University Poll finds Biden with a large lead among Latino voters, but also suggests there are some possible signs of strength for Trump among older voters in this group. However, Biden has a sizable advantage in solidly Democratic areas of the state as well as more competitive counties. Trump holds a smaller than usual lead for a Republican incumbent among the large veteran vote contingent. The poll also finds widespread voter support for ballot measures to raise the minimum wage and to change the state primary election process.

Among all registered voters in Florida, the race for president stands at 50% for Biden and 45% for Trump. Another 2% support Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) and less than 1% back Howie Hawkins (Green), while 3% are undecided. Voter intent includes 41% who say they are certain to vote for Biden (versus 40% who say they are not at all likely to support the Democrat) and 38% who are certain to support Trump (versus 49% who are not at all likely).

FLORIDA: VOTER MODELS

President Biden Trump Other Undecided

Registered voters

50% 45% 2% 3%

High likely turnout

50% 45% 1% 3%

Low likely turnout

49% 46% 1% 3%

Source: Monmouth University Poll, Sep. 10-13, 2020

Under a likely voter scenario with a somewhat higher level of turnout than in 2016, the race is unchanged at 50% for Biden and 45% for Trump. The margin narrows slightly to 49% Biden and 46%

1

Monmouth University Polling Institute 09/15/20

Trump when using a likely voter model with lower turnout. The last two presidential elections in Florida were decided by a single percentage point.

The Democrat has a large advantage among voters of color (70% to 22%) although the lead is smaller among Latino voters specifically (58% to 32%). According to the 2016 exit poll conducted by Edison Research for the national networks, Hillary Clinton won Florida's Latino vote by 27 points (62% to 35%).

"Biden's current lead among Latinos is similar to Clinton's margin four years ago. One difference, though, is how Florida's Latino electorate has shifted since 2016. There has been an influx of residents from Puerto Rico and a growing number of young voters. These groups tend to be more Democratic, which actually suggests that Trump could be doing slightly better among older Latino voters than he did four years ago," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

The poll finds a tight race among Florida voters age 65 and older ? 49% support Trump to 47% back Biden. Polls in other states have shown a preference for the Democrat among this age group and a recent national Monmouth poll put the "65+ vote" at 54% for Biden and 43% for Trump. The difference in Florida appears to be driven by older Latino voters. Among white voters age 65 and older, Trump holds a 52% to 45% lead in Florida which is similar to his 51% to 44% lead with this group nationally. Among voters of color in that age category, Biden has a 54% to 37% lead in Florida which is smaller than his 76% to 22% lead nationally. These differences among senior voters of color are technically within the survey margin of error for this group due to very small subsamples, but they are responsible for the variation in overall senior voter preferences between Florida and the national poll results.

Trump leads among white voters (56% to 39%), but this is smaller than his 32-point margin in the 2016 exit poll (64% to 32%). Trump has solid support among white voters without a college degree (65% to 29%), but Biden has a sizable edge among white college graduates (57% to 43%).

Biden currently holds a significant advantage in 7 counties where the vote margins were closest in the 2016 presidential election. The Democrat has a 60% to 33% lead among registered voters in these swing counties* where Clinton won the aggregate vote by a single point. Biden also racks up a sizable 63% to 34% margin in counties that went solidly for Clinton by a similar 27 points in 2016. Trump leads in the counties he won handily (60% to 33%), also by a similar 26 points four years ago.

Looking at regional strength another way, Biden currently has a 29-point lead (63% to 34%) in the 3-county southeast coastal portion of the state. He also has a small 6-point edge (50% to 44%) in central Florida. Trump leads in the rest of the state by 9 points (51% to 42%). In 2016, Clinton won the southeast by 28 points, but Trump won central Florida by less than a percentage point. He also won the remainder of the state by 19 points.

2

Monmouth University Polling Institute 09/15/20

"The current picture has Biden maintaining a typical Democratic advantage in southern Florida while making notable inroads in other parts of the state," said Murray.

Another key bloc in Florida is the military vote. Just over one-third of the state's electorate reside in veteran or military households. Among these voters, Trump leads Biden by just 4 points ? 50% to 46%.

A majority (56%) of Florida voters say that Trump respects our military troops and veterans either a great deal (40%) or some (16%). However, significantly more (70%) say the same of Biden (48% great deal and 22% some). Among voters in military and veteran households, 60% say the incumbent respects the military (43% great deal and 17% some) and 69% say the challenger does (49% great deal and 20% some).

"Trump won the vet vote by double digits four years ago but isn't anywhere near that level now. Are the incumbent's alleged negative statements about the military responsible? We can't say for certain since we don't have a prior trend on this question. But it sure can't be helping," said Murray.

The president gets generally poor marks for his handling of the coronavirus outbreak ? 44% say he has done a good job and 53% say he has done a bad job. However, Biden does not have a clear edge over the incumbent on this issue. Voters are split on whether they feel confident (49%) or not confident (51%) in Trump's ability to put the country on the road to recovery from the pandemic. The results are similar for Biden ? 49% confident and 49% not confident.

Overall, Biden earns better personal ratings than Trump. Among registered voters, 47% have a favorable view of the Democrat and 44% have an unfavorable opinion of him. By comparison, 41% have a favorable view of Trump and 51% have an unfavorable opinion of him. ? Other poll findings ?

The Monmouth University Poll also asked about two amendments on the Florida ballot this November and finds that both currently surpass the 60% support level required for passage. This includes 67% of registered voters who support a measure to raise the state's minimum wage to $15.00 an hour by 2026. Just 26% say they will vote against this. Also, 63% of voters plan to vote for changing the state's primary system for state and local offices to an open "jungle" format where the top two vote-getters advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation. Just 21% oppose this.

More than 1 in 3 (37%) Florida voters plan to mail their ballot this fall. Another 25% say they will vote at an early in-person site and just one-third (33%) will go to their polling place on Election Day. Just over half (51%) of Biden voters say they will vote by mail this year, 26% will vote early in person, and just 18% will go to the polls on Election Day. By contrast, nearly half (48%) of Trump voters intend to vote on November 3rd versus 26% who will vote early in person and 22% who will vote by mail. More than 6 in 10 (63%) Florida voters are at least somewhat confident that the November election will be conducted fairly and accurately, including 62% of Trump voters and 66% of Biden voters.

3

Monmouth University Polling Institute 09/15/20

Looking at other political figures in Florida, senior U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio earns a split 37% favorable and 38% unfavorable rating, with 25% having no opinion of him. The state's junior senator, and former governor, Rick Scott has a net negative 31% favorable and 46% unfavorable rating, with 23% having no opinion of him. Current Gov. Ron DeSantis gets a split 38% favorable and 39% unfavorable opinion, with 23% having no opinion of him. Florida voters are also divided on whether DeSantis has done a good job (48%) or bad job (47%) handling the coronavirus outbreak.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from September 10 to 13, 2020 with 428 Florida registered voters. The question results in this release have a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

* 2016 presidential margin by county groupings: Swing (21% of turnout) ? 7 counties where the winning margin for either candidate was less than 10 points, with a cumulative vote of 48.6% Clinton and 47.6% Trump (Duval, Hillsborough, Jefferson, Monroe, Pinellas, Seminole, St. Lucie). Clinton (37% of turnout) ? Clinton won these 8 counties by 10 points or more, with a cumulative vote of 62.1% to 35.2% (Alachua, Broward, Gadsden, Leon, Miami-Dade, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach). Trump (43% of turnout) ? Trump won these 52 counties by 10 points or more, with a cumulative vote of 61.6% to 35.1% (remainder of state).

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

1. If the election for President was today, would you vote for ... Donald Trump the

Republican, Joe Biden the Democrat, Jo Jorgensen the Libertarian, or Howie Hawkins of the

Green Party? [NAMES WERE ROTATED] [If UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the

following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward ? Donald Trump or Joe Biden?]

REGISTERED VOTERS

(with leaners)

Sept. 2020

Donald Trump

45%

Joe Biden

50%

Jo Jorgensen

2%

Howie Hawkins

................
................

In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.

Google Online Preview   Download