PUBLIC POLL FINDINGS AND METHODOLOGY

[Pages:39]PUBLIC POLL FINDINGS AND METHODOLOGY

Republican voters continue to view Trump as the party's leader

New USA Today/Ipsos poll also finds that most Democratic voters want someone besides Biden at the top of the ticket in 2024

Topline Findings

Washington, DC, August 28, 2022 ? Less than three months from the midterm elections, a new USA Today/Ipsos poll finds that former President Trump continues to be seen as the head of the Republican party, as a majority of Republican voters1 believe that he can win the next presidential election and should be the party's nominee in 2024. In contrast, Democratic voters2 are less enthusiastic about President Biden, and a slim majority believe he should not run for re-election in 2024. In the wake of the Inflation Reduction Act's passage, the American public gives the Democratic Party an advantage over the Republican Party on the ability to push their agenda through Washington. However, the GOP holds the advantage on being good for the economy, at a time when inflation/increasing costs are the single most important issue to Americans.

Detailed Findings

1. For Republican voters, former President Trump continues to be seen as the head of the Republican Party. ? When asked if a list of positive traits applies to Trump, a majority say each one applies (three in five or more). At the top of the list: 90% say Trump is willing to use all tools at his disposal to get things done, 87% say he fights for the people he represents, and 86% feel he fights against woke corporations and cancel culture. ? Regardless of who will be at the top of the ticket in 2024, these voters say the most important trait for the Republican nominee is someone who will stand up for the freedom and dignity of all Americans. More than eight in ten (82%) say that applies to Trump. ? Four in five Republican voters (82%) believe Trump can win the next presidential election. While majorities among most demographics are high on his re-election chances, voters that believe the Republican Party's views are more conservative than their own (75%) are less likely to believe President Trump can win the election. ? Along these lines, nearly three in five Republican voters (59%) believe President Trump should be the Republican nominee for president in 2024, compared to 41% who believe the Republican party needs change and he should not run. o Those with a household income of less than $50,000 a year (69%) and those without college degrees (66%) are more likely than their counterparts to believe President Trump should run in 2024.

1 Defined as those who at least occasionally vote, and when they vote, they mostly vote Republican

2 Defined as those who at least occasionally vote, and when they vote, they mostly vote Democratic

2020 K Street, NW, Suite 410

Contact: Mallory Newall

Washington DC 20006

Vice President, US, Public Affairs, Ipsos

+1 202 463-7300

Email: mallory.newall@

Tel: +1 202 374-2613

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PUBLIC POLL FINDINGS AND METHODOLOGY

2. Despite associating President Biden with important traits, Democratic voters are less supportive of him being the party's nominee in 2024. ? The vast majority of Democratic voters agree that President Biden has significant government experience (92%) and major policy knowledge and expertise (86%). A similarly strong percentage say he is focused on bringing the country together (85%) and fights for the people he represents (83%). ? However, despite possessing these qualities, Democrats are not as confident in Biden as Republicans are in Trump, though a majority still think Biden can win. Three in five Democratic voters believe he can win the next presidential election. o Women (55%) and those aged 18-34 (53%) are less likely than men (67%) and those ages 55+ (65%) to say that President Biden can win the next presidential election. ? At the same time, a majority (56%) of Democratic voters believe it's time for a change within the party and President Biden should not run for re-election in 2024. Forty-four percent say he should be the nominee and deserves re-election. This sentiment holds true across all age groups and ideologies within this group of voters.

3. Among all Americans, the Democratic Party is perceived as more inclusive and willing to compromise than Republicans. In the immediate aftermath of the Inflation Reduction Act's passage, they also enjoy an advantage of legislative efficacy in Washington. Republicans, however, take the cake on being better for the economy and tough on crime ? cementing their advantage on two major issues for the public right now. ? Americans are more likely to view the Democratic Party as willing to compromise to get things done (29%) and inclusive (31%) than the Republican Party (16% each). ? In contrast, the Republican Party is more likely to be seen as good for the economy (34%) and tough on crime (33%) than the Democratic Party (24% and 15%, respectively). ? Of note, nearly half of Americans (46%) believe inflation and increasing costs are the main problem currently facing the country. Gun violence (26%) and crime (17%) are included in a crowded second tier of issues. ? By a nearly two-to-one margin, Americans see the Democratic Party as more effective than the Republican Party at pushing their agenda in Washington (27% vs 15%), although similar percentages say both parties (22%) or neither (24%) are effective. o Republican voters are more likely to say the Democratic Party is more effective at pushing their agenda (31% vs 21% for the Republican Party); a similar percentage of Democratic voters say the same of the Democratic Party (32%). ? Though Democrats hold an advantage on efficacy in Washington, more Republican voters say Republican leaders can win elections than Democratic voters say about Democrats. The same is true when it comes to how each party's base feels about their leadership being effective communicators and campaigners. Forty-three percent of Republican voters say "effective communicators and campaigners" describes Republican leadership a fair amount, versus 34% of Democratic voters who feel that way about Democratic leadership.

2020 K Street, NW, Suite 410 Washington DC 20006 +1 202 463-7300

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Contact: Mallory Newall Vice President, US, Public Affairs, Ipsos

Email: mallory.newall@ Tel: +1 202 374-2613

PUBLIC POLL FINDINGS AND METHODOLOGY

These are the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between August 18 ? 22, 2022 on behalf of USA Today. For this survey, a sample of 2,345 adults age 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii was interviewed online in English. The poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for all respondents.

For full results, please refer to the following annotated questionnaire:

2020 K Street, NW, Suite 410 Washington DC 20006 +1 202 463-7300

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Contact: Mallory Newall Vice President, US, Public Affairs, Ipsos

Email: mallory.newall@ Tel: +1 202 374-2613

PUBLIC POLL FINDINGS AND METHODOLOGY

Full Annotated Questionnaire

1. Which of the following do you consider to be the main problem facing the country today? You may select up to three.

Inflation or increasing costs Gun violence Political extremism or polarization Climate change Crime Immigration Government budget and debt Healthcare COVID-19/coronavirus Racial injustice Taxes Abortion Opioid or drug addiction Social inequality Education Terrorism Other

Total (N=2,345)

46% 26%

22%

21% 17% 16% 16% 15% 13% 12% 11% 11% 10% 7% 7% 5% 3%

Typical Republican

voter3 (N=800)

58% 11%

21%

7% 25% 32% 27% 10% 8% 4% 13% 7% 12% 2% 5% 5% 2%

Typical Democrat

voter4 (N=1,031)

34% 40%

28%

35% 12% 6% 6% 18% 15% 18% 7% 14% 5% 13% 8% 5% 2%

Neither party voter or non-voter5 (N=514)

48% 23%

16%

20% 17% 12% 16% 19% 15% 14% 12% 13% 13% 5% 9% 5% 5%

2. Which of the following best describes you?

I never or almost never vote in elections I occasionally vote in general elections I vote in most general elections, but not in most primaries I vote in most general and primary elections I vote in every general or primary election

Total 23% 9% 9% 19% 40%

Republican voter -

10%

11%

24%

54%

Democrat voter -

11%

11%

25%

53%

Neither 77% 6% 4% 6% 6%

3 Defined as those who at least occasionally vote, and when they vote, they mostly vote Republican

4 Defined as those who at least occasionally vote, and when they vote, they mostly vote Democrat

5 Either someone who never/almost never votes OR typically votes third party

2020 K Street, NW, Suite 410

Contact: Mallory Newall

Washington DC 20006

Vice President, US, Public Affairs, Ipsos

+1 202 463-7300

Email: mallory.newall@

Tel: +1 202 374-2613

4

PUBLIC POLL FINDINGS AND METHODOLOGY

3. [SKIPPED IF "I NEVER OR ALMOST NEVER VOTE" IN Q2] When you do vote, do you mostly vote Democratic, Republican or third party? If it is close, go with how you would plan to vote in the next election.

Democrat Republican Third Party

Total (N=2,000)

50% 42% 9%

Republican voter

(N=800) -

100% -

Democrat voter

(N=1,031) 100% -

Neither (N=169)

100%

4. If you could vote for anyone who is eligible to be President of the United States in 2024 (at least 35 years old, U.S.-born citizen), who would you most like to vote for?

Open-ended responses provided separately.

5. For each of the following statements, please indicate if they better describe the [ROTATE] Democratic Party or Republican Party?

a. Cares about people like me

Total

Democratic Party Republican Party Both Neither Don't know

29% 24% 8% 32% 8%

Republican voter 4% 58% 7% 29% 3%

b. Shares my values

Democratic Party Republican Party Both Neither Don't know

Total

31% 28% 8% 25% 9%

Republican voter 3% 70% 8% 16% 3%

c. Is effective in pushing their agenda in Washington

Total

Republican voter

Democratic Party

27%

31%

Republican Party

15%

21%

Both

22%

19%

Neither

24%

23%

Don't know

11%

6%

Democrat voter 62% 3% 7% 25% 3%

Democrat voter 67% 4% 8% 18% 3%

Democrat voter 32% 16% 23% 23% 6%

Neither 13% 13% 9% 46% 20%

Neither 14% 12% 8% 45% 22%

Neither 17% 9% 24% 26% 24%

2020 K Street, NW, Suite 410 Washington DC 20006 +1 202 463-7300

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Contact: Mallory Newall Vice President, US, Public Affairs, Ipsos

Email: mallory.newall@ Tel: +1 202 374-2613

PUBLIC POLL FINDINGS AND METHODOLOGY

5. For each of the following statements, please indicate if they better describe the Democratic Party or Republican Party? (Continued)

d. Out of step with the American public

Total

Democratic Party Republican Party Both Neither Don't know

29% 27% 27% 7% 10%

Republican voter 58% 10% 23% 5% 4%

Democrat voter 13% 54% 23% 5% 7%

Neither

19% 11% 37% 12% 21%

e. Sticks to their morals and principles

Total

Democratic Party Republican Party Both Neither Don't know

22% 24% 12% 32% 9%

f. Too extreme

Democratic Party Republican Party Both Neither Don't know

Total

30% 31% 22% 8% 9%

Republican voter 2% 55% 10% 29% 4%

Democrat voter 50% 7% 12% 26% 5%

Republican voter 64% 8% 19% 7% 3%

Democrat voter 9% 63% 18% 6% 4%

Neither

7% 14% 14% 44% 21%

Neither

20% 16% 31% 12% 21%

g. Shows strong leadership in Washington

Total

Democratic Party Republican Party Both Neither Don't know

23% 21% 10% 37% 9%

Republican voter 6% 46% 8% 37% 4%

Democrat voter 46% 4% 12% 34% 4%

Neither

10% 15% 11% 41% 22%

h. Willing to compromise to get things done

Total

Republican voter

Democratic Party

29%

6%

Republican Party

16%

39%

Both

10%

11%

Neither

34%

39%

Don't know

10%

6%

Democrat voter 62% 3% 9% 23% 3%

Neither

13% 9% 11% 44% 23%

2020 K Street, NW, Suite 410 Washington DC 20006 +1 202 463-7300

6

Contact: Mallory Newall Vice President, US, Public Affairs, Ipsos

Email: mallory.newall@ Tel: +1 202 374-2613

PUBLIC POLL FINDINGS AND METHODOLOGY

5. For each of the following statements, please indicate if they better describe the Democratic Party or Republican Party? (Continued)

i. Is inclusive

Democratic Party Republican Party Both Neither Don't know

Total

31% 16% 14% 23% 16%

Republican voter 9% 35% 19% 24% 13%

Democrat voter 62% 7% 10% 15% 7%

Neither

14% 9% 16% 31% 30%

j. Is good for the economy

Democratic Party Republican Party Both Neither Don't know

Total

24% 34% 9% 24% 9%

Republican voter 2% 77% 6% 12% 2%

Democrat voter 55% 7% 11% 21% 5%

Neither

10% 21% 8% 39% 21%

k. Is tough on crime

Democratic Party Republican Party Both Neither Don't know

Total

15% 33% 14% 26% 12%

Republican voter 3% 68% 8% 17% 5%

Democrat voter 31% 13% 22% 26% 9%

Neither

8% 20% 12% 37% 24%

l. Is effective in using the media to push their agenda

Total

Republican voter

Democratic Party

30%

51%

Republican Party

20%

17%

Both

28%

19%

Neither

12%

9%

Don't know

10%

5%

Democrat voter 22% 31% 30% 12% 6%

Neither

17% 11% 35% 16% 20%

2020 K Street, NW, Suite 410 Washington DC 20006 +1 202 463-7300

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Contact: Mallory Newall Vice President, US, Public Affairs, Ipsos

Email: mallory.newall@ Tel: +1 202 374-2613

PUBLIC POLL FINDINGS AND METHODOLOGY

6. How familiar are you, if at all, with the following people?

Total Familiar Summary (Very/Somewhat)

Total

Donald Trump Joe Biden Kamala Harris Mike Pence Bernie Sanders Ted Cruz Elizabeth Warren Liz Cheney Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Ron DeSantis Pete Buttigieg Gavin Newsom Marjorie Taylor Greene Amy Klobuchar Greg Abbott Nikki Haley Gretchen Whitmer Tim Scott Glenn Youngkin Larry Hogan Asa Hutchinson Chris Sununu Roy Cooper

93% 92% 83% 82% 81% 73% 65% 62% 60% 56% 52% 47% 44% 41% 40% 40% 34% 30% 24% 22% 18% 18% 15%

Republican voter 98% 95% 89% 91% 88% 83% 71% 72% 67% 72% 61% 57% 45% 45% 48% 50% 39% 42% 32% 23% 20% 20% 16%

a. Joe Biden

Very familiar Somewhat familiar Not very familiar Not at all familiar Familiar (Net) Not Familiar (Net)

b. Pete Buttigieg

Very familiar Somewhat familiar Not very familiar Not at all familiar Familiar (Net) Not Familiar (Net)

Total

63% 28% 6% 3% 92% 8%

Total

22% 30% 19% 28% 52% 48%

Republican voter 73% 21% 4% 1% 95% 5%

Republican voter 25% 36% 16% 22% 61% 39%

Democrat voter 94% 96% 90% 88% 89% 80% 77% 73% 70% 63% 65% 55% 61% 55% 45% 45% 42% 32% 25% 27% 23% 23% 18%

Democrat voter 71% 25% 3% 2% 96% 4%

Democrat voter 31% 34% 19% 17% 65% 35%

2020 K Street, NW, Suite 410 Washington DC 20006 +1 202 463-7300

8

Contact: Mallory Newall Vice President, US, Public Affairs, Ipsos

Email: mallory.newall@ Tel: +1 202 374-2613

Neither

86% 83% 67% 65% 65% 53% 42% 35% 39% 30% 27% 25% 22% 19% 25% 22% 19% 13% 15% 14% 8% 11% 8%

Neither

43% 40% 11% 6% 83% 17%

Neither

8% 18% 24% 49% 27% 73%

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