Thursday, February 3:



|Chapter 10 Learning Objectives |Section |Related Example |Relevant |

| | |on Page(s) |Chapter Review |

| | | |Exercise(s) |

|Describe the shape, center, and spread of the sampling distribution of |10.1 |607 |2 |

|[pic]. | | | |

|Construct and interpret a confidence interval to compare two |10.1 |609 |2 |

|proportions. | | | |

|Perform a significance test to compare two proportions. |10.1 |614 |5, 6 |

|Describe the shape, center, and spread of the sampling distribution of |10.2 |631 |3 |

|[pic]. | | | |

|Construct and interpret a confidence interval to compare two means. |10.2 |635 |4, 6 |

|Perform a significance test to compare two means. |10.2 |639 |3, 7 |

|Determine when it is appropriate to use two-sample t procedures vs. |10.2 |647 |1, 7 |

|paired t procedures. | | | |

Tuesday, February 14: 10.1 Comparing Two Proportions

Is it harder to shoot free-throws with distractions? To investigate, a basketball player went to the gym and shot 20 free-throws. Ten of the free-throws were shot without any distractions and the other 10 were shot with his friends trying everything they could to distract him. The order of the 20 shots was determined at random.

Why was it important that the order of the shots was determined at random, rather than doing all of one type of shot before the other type of shot?

The player made 5/10 (50%) of his shots in the distraction-free environment and only 3/10 (30%) of his shots in the environment with distractions, for a difference of 50% – 30% = 20%. Identify two plausible explanations for why the shooter performed better in the distraction-free environment.

Design and conduct a simulation to determine if there is convincing evidence that the shooter is better in a distraction-free environment.

Read 604–606

What is meant by “the sampling distribution of the difference between two proportions”?

What are the shape, center, and spread of the sampling distribution of [pic]? Are there any conditions that need to be met?

Wednesday, February 15: 10.1 Significance Tests for a Difference in Proportions

Read 611–615

What is the pooled (combined) sample proportion? Why do we pool the sample proportions?

What is the test statistic for a two-sample z test for a difference in proportions? Is this on the formula sheet? What does the test statistic measure?

What are the conditions for conducting a two-sample z test for a difference in proportions? How are these different than the conditions for a one-sample z interval for p?

Alternate Example: Hearing loss

Are teenagers going deaf? In a study of 3000 randomly selected teenagers in 1988–1994, 15% showed some hearing loss. In a similar study of 1800 teenagers in 2005–2006, 19.5% showed some hearing loss. (These data are reported in Arizona Daily Star, August 18, 2010)

(a) Do these data give convincing evidence that the proportion of all teens with hearing loss has increased?

(b) Between the two studies, Apple introduced the iPod. If the results of the test are statistically significant, can we blame iPods for the increased hearing loss in teenagers?

HW #24: page 623 (15, 17a, 19)

Thursday, February 16: Confidence Intervals for the Difference of Two Proportions

Read 608–611

What is the standard error of [pic]? How is this different than the standard deviation of [pic]? Why is this different than the standard error we used for significance tests?

What is the formula for a two-sample z interval for [pic]? Is this on the formula sheet?

What are the conditions for calculating a two-sample z interval for [pic]?

Is it OK to use your calculator for the Do step? Are there any drawbacks?

Alternate Example: Gun Control

Have opinions changed about gun control? Gallup regularly asks random samples of U.S. adults their opinion on a variety of issues. In a poll of 1011 U.S. adults in January 2013, 38% responded that they “were dissatisfied with the nation’s gun laws and policies, and want them to be stricter.” In a similar poll of 1011 adults in January 2012, only 25% agreed with this statement.

(a) Explain why we should use a confidence interval to estimate the change in opinion rather than just saying that the percentage increased by 13 percentage points.

(b) Use the results of these polls to construct and interpret a 90% confidence interval for the change in the proportion of U.S. adults who would agree with the statement about gun laws.

(c) Based on the interval, is there convincing evidence that opinions about gun control have changed?

HW #25: page 621 (7–13 odd)

Friday, February 14: Discuss Semester Project; Look over any old Frappys

Monday, February 27: 10.1/10.2 Inference for Experiments

Read 615–619

What mistake do students often make when defining parameters in experiments? How can you avoid it?

Can you use your calculator for the Do step? Are there any drawbacks?

Alternate Example: Cash for quitters

In an effort to reduce health care costs, General Motors sponsored a study to help employees stop smoking. In the study, half of the subjects were randomly assigned to receive up to $750 for quitting smoking for a year while the other half were simply encouraged to use traditional methods to stop smoking. None of the 878 volunteers knew that there was a financial incentive when they signed up. At the end of one year, 15% of those in the financial rewards group had quit smoking while only 5% in the traditional group had quit smoking. Do the results of this study give convincing evidence that a financial incentive helps people quit smoking? (These data are reported in Arizona Daily Star, February 11, 2009)

Read 627–628

HW #26: page 624 (23, 25, 29–32), page 657 (57)

Tuesday, February 28: Significance Tests for the Difference of Two Means

Read 628–631

What are the shape, center, and spread of the sampling distribution of [pic]? Are there any conditions that need to be met?

Read 633–634

What is the standard error of [pic]? Is this on the formula sheet? How do you interpret this value?

What is the formula for the two-sample t statistic? Is this on the formula sheet? What does it measure?

What distribution does the two-sample t statistic have? Why do we use a t statistic rather than a z statistic? How do you calculate the degrees of freedom?

Read 638–643

What are the conditions for conducting a two-sample t test for [pic]?

Alternate Example: The stronger picker-upper?

In commercials for Bounty paper towels, the manufacturer claims that they are the “quicker picker-upper.” But are they also the stronger picker upper? Two AP Statistics students, Wesley and Maverick, decided to find out. They selected a random sample of 30 Bounty paper towels and a random sample of 30 generic paper towels and measured their strength when wet. To do this, they uniformly soaked each paper towel with 4 ounces of water, held two opposite edges of the paper towel, and counted how many quarters each paper towel could hold until ripping, alternating brands.

(a) The boxplots to the right display the results of their experiment. Based only on the boxplots, discuss whether or not you think the mean for Bounty is significantly higher than the mean for generic.

(b) For these data, [pic] = 117.6, [pic] = 6.64, [pic] = 88.1, and [pic] = 6.30. Is there convincing evidence that wet Bounty paper towels can hold more weight, on average, than wet generic paper towels?

(c) Interpret the P-value from (b) in the context of this question.

HW #27 page 652 (35a, 37a, 39, 41, 53)

Wednesday, March 1: Confidence Intervals for the Difference of Two Means

Read 634–637

What is the formula for the two-sample t interval for [pic]? What are the conditions for this interval to be valid? Is this formula on the formula sheet?

Is it OK to use your calculator for the Do step? Are there any drawbacks?

Alternate Example: Plastic grocery bags

Do plastic bags from Target or plastic bags from Bashas hold more weight? A group of AP Statistics students decided to investigate by filling a random sample of 5 bags from each store with common grocery items until the bags ripped. Then they weighed the contents of items in each bag to determine its capacity. Here are their results, in grams:

Target: 12,572 13,999 11,215 15,447 10,896

Bashas: 9552 10,896 6983 8767 9972

(a) Construct and interpret a 99% confidence interval for the difference in mean capacity of plastic grocery bags from Target and Bashas.

(b) Does your interval provide convincing evidence that there is a difference in the mean capacity between the two stores?

HW #28: page 653 (43, 45, 51)

Thursday, March 2: 10.2 Using t Procedures Wisely

Read 644–648

When doing two-sample t procedures, should we pool the data to estimate a common standard deviation? Is there any benefit? Are there any risks?

What about a two-sample test for a difference in proportions? Why do we pool for this test??

Should you use two-sample t procedures with paired data? Why not? How can you know which procedure to use?

Alternate Example: Testing with distractions

Suppose you are designing an experiment to determine if students perform better on tests when there are no distractions, such as a teacher talking on the phone. You have access to two classrooms and 30 volunteers who are willing to participate in your experiment.

(a) Design an experiment so that a two-sample t test would be the appropriate inference method.

(b) Design an experiment so that a paired t test would be the appropriate inference method.

(c) Which experimental design is better? Explain.

HW #29: page 658 (59–65, 67–70)

Friday, March 3: Review Chapter 10

Frappy: 2011 #4 (Cholesterol drugs)

HW #30: page 661 Chapter 10 Review Exercises (skip #8–10)

Monday, March 6: Review Chapter 10

HW #31: page 664 Chapter 10 AP Practice Test

Tuesday/ Wednesday, March 7/8: Chapter 10 Test

Final Project: Description

Purpose: The purpose of this project is for you to actually do statistics. You are to form a hypothesis, design a study, conduct the study, collect the data, describe the data, and make conclusions using the data. You are going to do it all!!

Topics: You may do your study on any topic, but you must be able to include all 6 steps listed above. Make it interesting and note that degree of difficulty is part of the grade. No projects involving surveys of humans will be allowed.

Group Size: You may work alone or with a partner for this project.

Proposal (25 points): To get your project approved, you must be able to demonstrate how your study will meet the requirements of the project. In other words, you need to clearly and completely communicate your hypotheses, your explanatory and response variables, the test/interval you will use to analyze the results, and how you will collect the data so the conditions for inference will be satisfied. You must also include at least two graphs of imaginary data: one graph for a study when there is a clear significant answer to the research question of interest and another graph for a study whose data are ambiguous.  If you use human subjects, you must also make sure that your study will be safe and ethical (anonymous, able to quit at any time, informed consent). The proposal should be typed. If your proposal isn’t approved, you must resubmit the proposal for partial credit until it is approved.

Poster (75 points):

The key to a good statistical poster is communication and organization. Make sure all components of the poster are focused on answering the question of interest and that statistical vocabulary is used correctly. The poster should include:

• Title (in the form of a question).

• Introduction. In the introduction you should discuss what question you are trying to answer, why you chose this topic, what your hypotheses are, and how you will analyze your data.

• Data Collection. In this section you will describe how you obtained your data. Be specific.

• Graphs, Summary Statistics and the Raw Data (if numerical). Make sure the graphs are well labeled, easy to compare, and help answer the question of interest. You should include a brief discussion of the graphs and interpretations of the summary statistics. Use the graphs and summary statistics to come up with a preliminary answer to the question of interest.

• Discussion and Conclusions. In this section, you will state your conclusion (with the name of the procedure, test statistic and P-value and/or confidence interval) and you should discuss why your inference procedure is valid. You should also discuss any possible errors (e.g. Type I or Type II), limitations to your conclusions, what you could do to improve the study next time, and any other critical reflections.

• Live action pictures of your data collection in progress.

Presentation: Each individual will be required to give a 5 minute oral presentation to the class.

Due Dates:

• The proposal is due on ____ __________________

• The poster/presentation is due on ____ ___________________

• Late work will lose 20% per class period.

Name:________________________________

Final Project: Rubric

|Final Project |4 = Complete |3 = Substantial |2 = Developing |1 = Minimal |

|Introduction |Describes the context of the research |Introduces the context of the |Introduces the context of |Briefly describes the |

| |Has a clearly stated question of |research and has a specific |the research and has a |context of the research |

| |interest |question of interest |specific question of | |

| |Clearly defines the parameter of |Has correct parameter/ |interest OR has question of | |

| |interest and states correct hypotheses |hypotheses OR has appropriate |interest and hypotheses | |

| |Question of interest is of appropriate |difficulty | | |

| |difficulty | | | |

|Data Collection |Method of data collection is clearly |Method of data collection is |Method of data collection is|Some evidence of data |

| |described |clearly described |described |collection |

| |Includes appropriate randomization |Some effort is made to |Some effort is made to | |

| |Describes efforts to reduce bias, |incorporate principles of good |incorporate principles of | |

| |variability, confounding |data collection |good data collection | |

| |Quantity of data collected is |Quantity of data is appropriate| | |

| |appropriate | | | |

|Graphs and Summary |Appropriate graphs are included |Includes an inappropriate |Graphs and summary |Graphs or summary |

|Statistics |Graphs are neat, clearly labeled, and |graph, doesn’t provide a |statistics are included |statistics are included |

| |easy to compare |preliminary answer, doesn’t | | |

| |Appropriate summary statistics are |include summary statistics or | | |

| |included |has errors in the graphs (e.g.,| | |

| |Graphs and summary statistics are used |hard to compare) | | |

| |to give a preliminary answer to the | | | |

| |question of interest | | | |

|Analysis |Correct inference procedure is chosen |Correct inference procedure is |Correct inference procedure |Inference procedure is |

| |Justifies use of inference procedure |chosen |is chosen |attempted |

| |Test statistic/P-value or confidence |Lacks justification, lacks |Test statistic/P-value or | |

| |interval is calculated correctly |interpretation, or makes a |confidence interval is | |

| |P-value or confidence interval is |calculation error |calculated correctly | |

| |interpreted correctly | | | |

|Conclusions |Uses P-value/confidence interval to |Makes a correct conclusion |Makes a partially correct |Makes a conclusion |

| |correctly answer question of interest |Missing the discussion of |conclusion (such as | |

| |Discusses what inferences are |appropriate inferences or has |accepting null). | |

| |appropriate based on study design |only some evidence of critical |Shows some evidence of | |

| |(population/cause-effect) |reflection |critical reflection or some | |

| |Shows good evidence of critical | |awareness of appropriate | |

| |reflection (discusses possible errors, | |inferences | |

| |limitations, etc.) | | | |

|Overall Presentation/ |Clear, holistic understanding of the |Clear, holistic understanding |Poster is not well done or |Communication and |

|Communication |project |of the project |communication is poor |organization are very |

| |Poster is well organized, neat and easy |Statistical vocabulary is used | |poor |

| |to read |correctly | | |

| |Statistical vocabulary is used correctly|Poster is unorganized or isn’t | | |

| |Poster is visually appealing |visually appealing, | | |

Proposal: ____________ Presentation: ___________ Total:_____________

Final Grade: __________

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