U.S. Population Projections: 2012 to 2060

U.S. Population Projections: 2012 to 2060

Jennifer M. Ortman Population Division

Presentation for the FFC/GW Brown Bag Seminar Series on Forecasting

Washington, DC February 7, 2013

U.S. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

2012 National Projections

? First series based on the 2010 Census ? Projections of the U.S. population by age,

sex, race, and Hispanic origin ? Covers the period from 2012 to 2060

U.S. Department of Commerce

Economics and Statistics Administration

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U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

Overview

? Methodology and assumptions

? Mortality ? Fertility ? Net International Migration

? Highlights from the results

U.S. Department of Commerce

Economics and Statistics Administration

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U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

Making Population Projections

Starting

Births and

Population Immigrants

Deaths and

Emigrants

Future Population

U.S. Department of Commerce

Economics and Statistics Administration

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U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

Mortality Projections

? One series of mortality projections

? Three race and Hispanic origin groups

? Non-Hispanic White and Asian or Pacific Islander (API)

? Non-Hispanic Black and American Indian or Alaska Native (AIAN)

? Hispanic

U.S. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

Note: The superseded Asian and Pacific Islander combined category is used due to the lack of historical data for the current categories of: (1) Asian and (2) Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander.

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Mortality Projection Methodology

? Life expectancy at birth is projected for each group to 2060

? Hispanic life expectancy is projected to converge to the rate projected for the nonHispanic White and API population in 2035

? Use Coale-Demeny West model life table to convert life expectancy projections to age-specific mortality rates

U.S. Department of Commerce

Economics and Statistics Administration

6

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

Life Expectancy at Birth by Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1989 to 2060

Male Non-Hispanic

Male Non-Hispanic

Male Hispanic

White and API

Black and AIAN

Female Non-Hispanic

Female Non-Hispanic

Female Hispanic

White and API 90

Black and AIAN

85

80

75

70

65

60 1989

1999

2009

2019

U.S. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

Life Expectancy at Birth

Male

Female

Non- Non-

Non- Non-

Hispanic Hispanic

Hispanic Hispanic

White Black and

White Black and

Year and API AIAN Hispanic and API AIAN Hispanic

2009 76.72 71.12 78.80 81.40 77.52 83.68

2060 83.21 80.37 83.21 87.18 84.72 87.18

2029

2039

2049

2059

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Fertility Projections

? One series of fertility projections ? Rates for women aged 10 to 54 years ? Five race and Hispanic origin groups

? Non-Hispanic

? White ? Black ? American Indian or Alaska Native (AIAN) ? Asian or Pacific Islander (API)

? Hispanic

U.S. Department of Commerce

Economics and Statistics Administration

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U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

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