Atlanta Fed GDPNow Estimate for 2020: Q1

[Pages:5]FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ATLANTA

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Estimate for 2023: Q3

SEPTEMBER 19, 2023

Note: The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate is a model-based projection not subject to judgmental adjustments. It is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed, its president, the Federal Reserve System, or the Federal Open Market Committee.

GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow--the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model.

In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate their impact on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.

Evolution of Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP estimate for 2023: Q3

Quarterly percent change (SAAR)

6 Atlanta Fed

GDPNow estimate 5

4

3

2

1 Blue Chip consensus

0 -1

Range of top 10 and bottom 10 average forecasts

-2 27-Jun 5-Jul 13-Jul 21-Jul 29-Jul 6-Aug 14-Aug 22-Aug 30-Aug 7-Sep 15-Sep

Date of forecast

Sources: Blue Chip Economic Indicators and Blue Chip Financial Forecasts Note: The top (bottom) 10 average forecast is an average of the highest (lowest) 10 forecasts in the Blue Chip survey.

Evolution of Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP growth estimates for 2023: Q3

Date

Major Releases

28-Jul Initial GDPNow 23:Q3 forecast

GDP* Date

Major Releases

GDP*

Personal income and outlays, NIPA

underlying detail tables, GDP (8/30),

3.5 31-Aug Adv Econ Indicators (8/30)

5.6

ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction

1-Aug

spending

3.9

Auto sales (8/2), ISM Nonmanuf Index,

3-Aug

M3-2 Manufacturing

4.0

4-Aug

Employment situation

4.0

8-Aug International trade, Wholesale Trade 4.1

Consumer Price Index, Monthly

10-Aug

Treasury Statement

4.1

11-Aug

Producer Price Index

4.1

15-Aug Retail trade, Import/Export Prices 5.0

16-Aug Housing starts, Industrial Production 5.8

22-Aug

Existing-home sales

5.7

23-Aug

New-home sales

5.7

24-Aug Advance Census manuf (M3-1) 5.9

ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction 1-Sep spending, Employment situation 5.6

5-Sep M3-2 Manufacturing, Auto sales 5.4

6-Sep Int trade, ISM Nonmanuf Index 5.6

8-Sep

Wholesale trade

5.6

Consumer Price Index, Monthly

13-Sep

Treasury Statement

5.5

14-Sep Retail trade, Producer Price Index 4.9

15-Sep

Import/Export Prices

4.9

19-Sep

Housing starts

4.9

*Note: Annualized quarterly growth rate of real GDP.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates for 2023: Q3, growth rates and changes

Date

Major Releases

30-Aug Latest BEA estimate for 23:Q1

30-Aug Latest BEA estimate for 23:Q2

28-Jul Initial GDPNow 23:Q3 forecast

24-Aug Advance Census manuf (M3-1)

Personal income and outlays, NIPA

underlying detail tables, GDP (8/30),

31-Aug

Adv Econ Indicators (8/30)

GDP 2.0 2.1 3.5 5.9

EquipPCE ment

4.2 -8.9 1.7 7.7 3.1 0.0 4.8 2.4

Intell. prop. Nonres. Resid. prod. struct. inves.

3.1 15.8 -4.0 2.2 11.2 -3.6 6.3 -3.2 -1.9 6.2 -2.8 8.7

Change

in net Change

Govt. Exports Imports exp. in CIPI

5.0 7.8 2.0 30 -133

3.3 -10.6 -7.0

-4

-5

2.9 4.7 2.9

2 33

2.5 5.4 3.5

2 71

5.6 4.3 3.2 6.1 -3.1 8.8 2.5 5.3 2.3 12 66

ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction

1-Sep spending, Employment situation

5.6 4.2 2.7 5.9 0.2 7.2 2.3 5.1 2.0 13 69

5-Sep M3-2 Manufacturing, Auto sales

5.4 3.9 1.3 5.9 0.1 7.1 2.3 5.1 2.0 13 72

6-Sep Int trade, ISM Nonmanuf Index

5.6 4.0 0.1 5.9 0.2 7.2 2.3 6.4 1.9 23 72

8-Sep

Wholesale trade

5.6 4.0 0.1 5.9 0.2 7.3 2.3 6.4 1.9 22 71

Consumer Price Index, Monthly

13-Sep

Treasury Statement

5.5 4.0 0.2 5.9 0.2 7.4 1.9 6.5 2.0 22 69

14-Sep Retail trade, Producer Price Index

4.9 3.5 0.2 5.9 -0.1 6.8 1.9 6.4 1.9 22 63

15-Sep

Import/Export Prices

4.9 3.6 0.3 5.9 -0.2 6.8 1.9 6.8 2.2 22 55

19-Sep

Housing starts

4.9 3.6 0.2 5.9 -0.2 6.3 1.9 6.7 2.2 22 55

Maximum forecast of real GDP growth 24-Aug Advance Census manuf (M3-1)

Minimum forecast of real GDP growth 28-Jul Initial GDPNow 23:Q3 forecast

5.9 4.8 2.4 6.2 -2.8 8.7 2.5 5.4 3.5 3.5 3.1 0.0 6.3 -3.2 -1.9 2.9 4.7 2.9

2 71 2 33

Note: The first two rows are published BEA estimates for the most recent two quarters. Rows including and below row three are GDPNow forecasts. CIPI is "change in private inventories." Changes in net exports and CIPI are both in billions of 2012 dollars (SAAR). All other numbers are quarterly percent changes (SAAR). The table does not necessarily include all estimates for the quarter; see tab "TrackingHistory" in the online Excel file for the entire history.

Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates for 2023: Q3, contributions to growth

Date 30-Aug 30-Aug 28-Jul 24-Aug

31-Aug

Major Releases Latest BEA estimate for 23:Q1 Latest BEA estimate for 23:Q2 Initial GDPNow 23:Q3 forecast Advance Census manuf (M3-1) Personal income and outlays, NIPA underlying detail tables, GDP (8/30),

Adv Econ Indicators (8/30)

GDP 2.0 2.1 3.5 5.9

EquipPCE ment

2.79 -0.48 1.14 0.38 2.12 0.00 3.29 0.13

Intell.

prop. Nonres. Resid.

Net

prod. struct. inves. Govt. exports

0.16 0.40 -0.16 0.85 0.58

0.12 0.30 -0.14 0.58 -0.22

0.34 -0.09 -0.07 0.51 0.10

0.34 -0.08 0.33 0.45 0.10

CIPI -2.14 -0.09 0.63 1.35

5.6 2.94 0.16 0.33 -0.09 0.33 0.44 0.26 1.25

ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction

1-Sep spending, Employment situation

5-Sep M3-2 Manufacturing, Auto sales

6-Sep Int trade, ISM Nonmanuf Index

8-Sep

Wholesale trade

Consumer Price Index, Monthly

13-Sep

Treasury Statement

14-Sep Retail trade, Producer Price Index

15-Sep

Import/Export Prices

19-Sep

Housing starts

5.6 2.90 0.14 0.32 0.00 0.27 0.41 0.28 1.31 5.4 2.68 0.07 0.32 0.00 0.27 0.41 0.28 1.37 5.6 2.76 0.01 0.32 0.00 0.27 0.41 0.43 1.37 5.6 2.76 0.01 0.32 0.00 0.27 0.41 0.43 1.36

5.5 2.77 0.01 0.32 0.01 0.28 0.33 0.43 1.30 4.9 2.40 0.01 0.32 0.00 0.26 0.33 0.43 1.20 4.9 2.50 0.01 0.32 0.00 0.25 0.33 0.43 1.05 4.9 2.50 0.01 0.32 -0.01 0.24 0.33 0.43 1.05

Maximum forecast of real GDP growth 24-Aug Advance Census manuf (M3-1)

Minimum forecast of real GDP growth 28-Jul Initial GDPNow 23:Q3 forecast

5.9 3.29 0.13 0.34 -0.08 0.33 0.45 0.10 1.35 3.5 2.12 0.00 0.34 -0.09 -0.07 0.51 0.10 0.63

Note: The first two rows are published BEA estimates for the most recent two quarters. Rows including and below row three are GDPNow forecasts. CIPI is "change in private inventories." All numbers are percentage-point contributions to GDP growth (SAAR). The table does not necessarily include all estimates for the quarter; see tab "ContribHistory" in the online Excel file for the entire history.

Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

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