Appendix D Emissions Estimation Methodology for Ocean ...

Appendix D Emissions Estimation Methodology for Ocean-Going Vessels

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Emissions Estimation Methodology for Ocean-Going Vessels

May 2008

California Air Resources Board Planning and Technical Support Division

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Contents

Page

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................. D-5 A. Background................................................................................................ D-7 B. Purpose and Overview............................................................................... D-8 C. Public Process ........................................................................................... D-8

II. EMISSION ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY .................................................. D-10 A. Emission Inventory Inputs........................................................................ D-10 1. Base Year Vessel Population............................................................ D-10 2. Operating Mode Specific Activity Hours ............................................ D-11 a. Transit Mode .............................................................................. D-11 Distance Traveled: Vessel Traffic Lanes............................... D-11 Vessel Speed........................................................................ D-15 b. Maneuvering............................................................................... D-15 c. Hotelling ..................................................................................... D-16 d. Anchorage .................................................................................. D-16 3. Main Engine, Auxiliary Engine, & Auxiliary Boiler Power .................... D-17 4. Load Factor......................................................................................... D-18 a. Main Engines.............................................................................. D-18 b. Auxiliary Engines ........................................................................ D-18 5. Emission Factors ................................................................................ D-19 6. Fuel Consumption............................................................................... D-21 7. Growth Rate........................................................................................ D-22 8. Control Measures................................................................................ D-23 B. Methodology ............................................................................................ D-24

III. RESULTS ....................................................................................................... D-25 A. Fuel Consumption.................................................................................... D-25 B. Emissions in the 24 nautical mile regulatory zone ................................... D-25 C. Emissions in the 100 nautical mile CEIDARS zone ................................. D-26

IV. REFERENCES ............................................................................................... D-44

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TABLE OF CONTENTS (CONT.)

Tables

Page

Table ES-1: Ship Emissions in 2006 (tons/day) in the 24 nm Zone........................... D-6 Table ES-2: Ship Emissions by District (tons/day) in the 24 nm Zone ....................... D-6 Table I-1: Categories of Ocean-Going Vessels Included in the Emissions

Inventory ................................................................................................ D-8 Table II-1: 2006 Port Calls in California ................................................................ D-11 Table II-2: 2006 Hotelling Time Averages (hours per visit) ................................... D-16 Table II-3: 2006 Average Anchorage Times (hours per visit)................................ D-17 Table II-4: Average Vessel Characteristics ........................................................... D-18 Table II-5: OGV Auxiliary Engine Load Characteristics (percent load).................. D-19 Table II-6: Main Engine Emission Factors ? Transit Mode (g/kW-hr).................... D-20 Table II-7: Main Engine Emission Factors ? Maneuvering Mode (g/kW-hr) .......... D-20 Table II-8: Auxiliary Engine Emission Factors ? Transit, Maneuvering, and

Hotelling (g/kW-hr)............................................................................... D-20 Table II-9: Auxiliary Boiler Emission Factors (g/kW-hr)......................................... D-21 Table II-10: Fuel Consumption Rates (g/kW-hr) ..................................................... D-22 Table II-11: Growth Rates by Port and Vessel Type ............................................... D-23 Table III-1: Fuel Consumption (tons/day)............................................................... D-25 Table III-2: Auxiliary Engine Emissions by Vessel Type in 24 nm

Regulatory Zone .................................................................................. D-27 Table III-3: Auxiliary Boiler Emissions by Vessel Type in 24 nm

Regulatory Zone .................................................................................. D-28 Table III-4: Main Engine Emissions by Vessel Type in 24 nm Regulatory Zone .... D-29 Table III-5: Total Emissions by Vessel Type in 24 nm Regulatory Zone ................ D-30 Table III-6: Auxiliary Engine Emissions by District in 24 nm Regulatory Zone ....... D-31 Table III-7: Auxiliary Boiler Emissions by District in 24 nm Regulatory Zone ......... D-32 Table III-8: Main Engine Emissions by District in 24 nm Regulatory Zone............. D-33 Table III-9: Total Emissions by District in 24 nm Regulatory Zone......................... D-34 Table III-10: Auxiliary Engine Emissions by Vessel Type in 100 nm

Regulatory Zone .................................................................................. D-35 Table III-11: Auxiliary Boiler Emissions by Vessel Type in 100 nm

Regulatory Zone .................................................................................. D-36 Table III-12: Main Engine Emissions by Vessel Type in 100 nm Regulatory Zone .. D-37 Table III-13: Total Emissions by Vessel Type in 100 nm Regulatory Zone .............. D-38 Table III-14: Auxiliary Engine Emissions by District in 100 nm Regulatory Zone ..... D-39 Table III-15: Auxiliary Boiler Emissions by District in 100 nm Regulatory Zone ....... D-40 Table III-16: Main Engine Emissions by District in 100 nm Regulatory Zone........... D-41 Table III-17: Total Engine Emissions by District in 100 nm Regulatory Zone........... D-42 Table III-18: Total Emissions by Engine Type in 24 nm Regulatory Zone................ D-43

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TABLE OF CONTENTS (CONT.)

Figures

Figure 1: Figure 2: Figure 3:

Page

Vessel Traffic Lanes ............................................................................ D-13 Vessel Traffic Lanes ? Northern California .......................................... D-14 Vessel Traffic Lanes ? Southern California.......................................... D-14

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Ocean-Going Vessel Emission Estimation Methodology

Lead: Andy Alexis

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Air Resources Board (ARB) staff have revised the methodology to calculate emissions from ocean-going vessels in California. This revised inventory will be used to support regulatory analysis of statewide regulations to reduce emissions from ocean-going vessels. Other goals in undertaking this emissions inventory update were to:

? Update the inventory to reflect recent (2006) activity data ? Include ship and port call specific data ? Align the inventory to reflect recent port inventories ? Revise growth assumptions and methods ? Incorporate existing control strategies into methodology ? Assess benefits of regulations

This inventory is a revision of an inventory developed by staff in 2005 in support of a number of programs, including the auxiliary engine regulation, the goods movement program, the Ozone State Implementation Plan (SIP), the sulfur emission control area designation, and others.

The proposed inventory increases the specificity of the earlier inventory by including vessel specific characteristics and port call specific activity data, including port call specific hotelling times for individual vessel visits; vessel-specific power and speed ratings, and a more accurate shipping lane network. It is also based on more recent activity data: the earlier inventory used a 2004 base year; the new inventory uses a 2006 base year. The growth factors have been updated with additional years of trend data, a port and vessel type specificity, and a more robust growth surrogate. Finally, existing control strategy emission reductions are built into the inventory model, rather than being applied from the forecasting database.

Emissions are calculated by estimating ship emissions on a ship by ship and a port call by port call basis, using actual ship engine power estimates, speeds, and actual ship hotelling times where possible. Base year emissions were forecasted using a set of growth factors specific to each port and each ship type.

Emissions were calculated within two distinct zones; the 24 nautical mile zone used for the 2005 auxiliary engine regulation and the goods movement program, and a 100 nautical mile zone that is used for ARB's emissions inventory system.

In the main body of this report, emissions are presented from the 24 nautical mile zone. Emissions from both zones are presented in Attachment A.

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Using the proposed methodology, we estimate 2006 statewide emissions from ocean going vessels in the 24 nautical mile regulatory zone were over 14 tons per day of diesel PM, over 155 tons per day of oxides of nitrogen (NOx), and over 7,400 tons per day of carbon dioxide (CO2). Detailed emission estimates are presented in Table ES-1.

Table ES-1 summarizes the emissions by vessel type for the 24 nautical mile regulatory zone. Container ships account for almost 50% of the vessel calls, but about 60% of the NOx and PM10 emissions,

Table ES-1: Ship Emissions in 2006 (tons/day) in the 24 nm Zone

Vessel Type Vessels Port Calls CH4

Auto

234

1006

0.0

Bulk

475

983

0.0

Container

593

5038

0.5

Cruise

52

770

0.1

General

147

371

0.0

Reefer

68

315

0.0

Ro-ro

28

112

0.0

Tanker

458

2391

0.2

Total

2055

10986

0.8

CO 0.6 0.6 7.7 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 2.4 12.7

CO2 288.2 322.6 3818.1 615.9 133.2 111.1 30.8 2081.8 7401.6

NOx 7.2 7.9 94.2 12.0 3.3 2.2 0.7 29.5 157.1

PM 10 0.6 0.7 8.4 1.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 3.2 14.6

PM2 .5 0.6 0.7 8.1 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 3.1 14.3

ROG 0.3 0.3 3.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2 6.1

SOx 4.6 5.1 60.1 9.0 2.1 1.7 0.5 34.1 117.2

Table ES-2 summarizes the emissions by district for the 24 nautical mile regulatory zone. In 2006, emissions were almost evenly split between Southern and Northern California.

Table ES-2: Ship Emissions by District (tons/day) in the 24 nm Zone

District Bay Area AQMD Mendocino County AQMD Monterey Bay Unified APCD North Coast Unified APCD Northern Sonoma County APCD San Diego County APCD San Joaquin Valley Unified APCD San Luis Obispo County APCD Santa Barbara County APCD South Coast AQMD Ventura County APCD Yolo/Solano AQMD Total

CH4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8

CO 3.0 0.5 1.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.8 0.6 0.0

12.7

CO2 1958.9

253.8 740.3 203.5 144.5 271.8

30.6 101.7 804.5 2589.8 296.3

5.9 7401.6

NOx 37.7 6.8 20.1 5.5 3.9 5.9 0.3 2.8 22.0 44.9 7.3 0.1

157.1

PM10 3.6 0.6 1.7 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.5 0.6 0.0 14.6

PM2.5 3.5 0.6 1.7 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.4 0.6 0.0

14.3

ROG 1.5 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 6.1

SOx 31.4 4.2 12.3 3.4 2.4 4.2 0.5 1.7 13.4 39.0 4.8 0.1 117.2

The following section provides background on the ship emissions inventory, the purpose and goals in preparing this emissions inventory, and a general overview of the methodology used to estimate emissions.

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