FUS-1315*;M-0099XXXX.O; QUARTERLY EARNINGS REPORT



PENNSYLVANIA PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSIONPublic Meeting held January 26, 2017 Docket Number: M-2017-2583651BUREAU OF TECHNICAL UTILITY SERVICESREPORT ON THE QUARTERLY EARNINGSOF JURISDICTIONAL UTILITIESFOR THE YEAR ENDEDSeptember 30, 2016Gladys M. Brown, ChairmanAndrew G. Place, Vice Chairman, Statement, dissentingJohn F. Coleman, Jr., CommissionerRobert F. Powelson, CommissionerDavid W. Sweet, CommissionerTABLE OF CONTENTS Page No.Introduction..................................................................................................... 4UGI Utilities, Inc. – Gas Division, Metropolitan Edison Company, Pennsylvania Electric Company, Pennsylvania Power Company, West Penn Power Company, and Columbia Gas have pending rate filings at Docket Nos. R-2015-2518438, R-2016-2537349, R-2016-2537352, R-2016-2537355, R20162537359, and R-2016-2529660, respectively, and filed a letter with the Secretary in place of a report in accordance with 52 Pa. Code § 71.4. Attachment A – Summary of Equity Returns……………………………… 5 Attachment B – Summary of Returns12This chart depicts the overall and equity returns (actual and adjusted) for the filing utilities for the current quarter. The last authorized equity return and the year authorized is also shown.Attachment C – Allowed Rates of Return on Common Equity14This is a historical chart that shows the most recent fully litigated rate cases for select companies in electric, gas, and water. A docket number followed by their final return on equity and year is also given. Attachment D – Distribution System Improvement Charge Return on Equity15Compares utility adjusted return on equity to Commission authorized return on equity for utilities with a Distribution System Improvement Charge. Attachment E – Explanation of Return on Equity Methods16Criteria for determining the industry barometer groups used in ROE calculations. Also provides details of the Discounted Cash Flow equation and Capital Asset Pricing Model equation.Attachment F – Market Based Returns on Equity – Electric18The market indicated common equity cost rate range consists of data used from the electric barometer groups and is based on a series of calculations to average the DCF methods. Also indicates Distribution System Improvement Charge Return.Attachment F – Historic DCF and CAPM – Electric19Historic barometer group DCF and CAPM average ROEs, including a linear trend line graph.Attachment F – Electric Barometer Group Calculation of a Current and 52 Week Average Dividend Yield20Electric barometer companies are used to calculate a current DCF in the first chart. The second chart demonstrates the companies 52 week average DCF. A final average of the two calculations is also shown at the bottom.Attachment F – Development of a Representative Dividend Growth Rate…………………………………………………...21Multiple sources of the gas barometer companies projected 5 year Earnings Per Share are used to calculate the Group Average Dividend Growth Estimate.Attachment G – Market Based Returns on Equity – Gas22The market indicated common equity cost rate range consists of data used from the gas barometer groups and is based on a series of calculations to average the DCF methods. Also indicates Distribution System Improvement Charge Return.Attachment G – Historic DCF and CAPM – Gas23Historic barometer group DCF and CAPM average ROEs, including a linear trend line graph.Attachment G – Gas Barometer Group Calculation of a Current and 52 Week Average Dividend Yield24Gas barometer companies are used to calculate a current DCF in the first chart. The second chart demonstrates the companies 52 week average DCF. A final average of the two calculations is also shown at the bottom.Attachment G – Development of a Representative Dividend Growth Rate…………………………………………………...25Multiple sources of the gas barometer companies projected 5 year Earnings Per Share are used to calculate the Group Average Dividend Growth Estimate.Attachment H – Market Based Returns on Equity – Water26The market indicated common equity cost rate range consists of data used from the water barometer groups and is based on a series of calculations to average the DCF methods. Also indicates Distribution System Improvement Charge Return.Attachment H – Historic DCF and CAPM – Water27Historic barometer group DCF and CAPM average ROEs, including a linear trend line graph.Attachment H – Water Barometer Group Calculation of a Current and 52 Week Average Dividend Yield28Water barometer companies are used to calculate a current DCF in the first chart. The second chart demonstrates the companies 52 week average DCF. A final average of the two calculations is also shown at the bottom.Attachment H – Development of a Representative Dividend Growth Rate…………………………………………………...29Multiple sources of the water barometer companies projected 5 year Earnings Per Share are used to calculate the Group Average Dividend Growth Estimate.Introduction:On September?20,?1991, the Commission initiated a rulemaking at L-00910061 pertaining to earnings disclosures by the public utilities subject to its jurisdiction. At that docket, the Commission stated that the submission of accurate, reliable and complete earnings disclosure reports, at regular intervals, is essential to the fulfillment of the broad regulatory oversight responsibilities entrusted to the Commission by the Legislature in the Public Utility Code. The earnings disclosure regulations promulgated by the Commission were adopted October?1,?1992, and published January?23,?1993, at 23 Pa.B. 463. Based upon those regulations, codified at 52 Pa. Code, Chapter 71, a reporting format was developed and distributed to the jurisdictional fixed utilities of Pennsylvania.All fixed utilities having jurisdictional revenues of $1,000,000 or more, for a calendar year, are required to file the report by March 31 of each year. Such reports are to be based upon the results of operations for the 12-month period ending December 31 of the prior year. Utilities having more than $10,000,000 in jurisdictional revenues are also required to file reports for the 12 months ending on March 31, June 30, and September 30 of each year. On November?30,?2004, however, the Pennsylvania General Assembly signed into law Act 183 concerning alternative telecommunications regulation and broadband deployment. As a result of Act 183, the reporting requirements for the PUC jurisdictional telecommunications companies of Pennsylvania have been streamlined at section 3015(e) of the Public Utility Code. A quarterly earnings report is not listed among those reports now required of PUC jurisdictional telecommunications utilities in Pennsylvania and, therefore, this report does not address telephone company earnings. The reports have been filed for the period ended September 30, 2016. The Finance Staff of the Bureau of Technical Utility Services has reviewed the reports and has prepared this summary report for public release. This report sets forth the achieved return on equity for each company, the last allowed return for that utility, a market return as determined through the analysis of the barometer group data and the most recent returns allowed, per industry, by the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission and by other regulatory bodies. Where a utility has not filed a report, the reasons for not filing are indicated.Questions pertaining to the preparation and contents of this Report should be directed to Ms. Erin Laudenslager, Manager - Finance, Bureau of Technical Utility Services, at (717) 705-4364.The equity return summaries that follow in Attachment A are, for each quarter;ACTUALBased on actual results of operationsandADJUSTED2. Based on company proposed pro forma and ratemaking adjustmentsELECTRIC UTILITIESEQUITY RETURNS BY QUARTERQTRENDPECOPPLDuqW PennPaPwrUGIPenelecMetEdACTADJACTADJACTADJACTADJACTADJACTADJACTADJACTADJ2010414.359.617.916.984.784.806.884.6912.9511.559.118.106.124.86111.7411.348.318.318.436.8010.908.5513.4613.479.578.6210.569.212011212.2511.039.419.4110.8610.3910.058.407.415.8114.1112.946.516.387.686.43310.3511.078.898.8910.059.5812.9511.2111.6710.0514.8412.938.738.189.907.50413.4111.3810.219.9713.3311.585.917.6014.609.796.458.434.245.23112.8911.2610.9510.7111.6613.165.787.0215.048.425.767.543.904.642012212.6312.0110.8110.4210.619.158.958.9514.618.536.488.083.444.01313.1412.6610.339.9210.6310.459.699.5415.859.487.348.585.726.28411.5511.566.024.8810.279.249.549.548.418.2714.608.985.417.745.396.81111.9211.277.566.2410.129.749.239.238.898.7412.779.845.307.675.016.472013211.4010.747.807.3712.3412.348.858.7011.5310.495.868.215.366.79311.0910.968.678.389.139.138.498.3410.7410.65-0.772.07-12.43-10.43411.9710.5210.019.7913.7313.7314.4914.3014.2511.994.852.99-6.06-7.8719.9710.3410.0210.0411.589.4515.2815.0413.3610.255.173.34-6.40-8.132014210.0510.089.5010.099.779.2912.649.2138.939.2510.079.999.979.488.769.2248.239.589.779.409.0110.00110.089.6510.8810.39201529.809.4213.579.49310.119.736.456.455.775.7715.937.572.942.943.693.69410.748.848.898.489.739.368.098.095.135.139.749.215.455.457.047.042016110.869.747.756.949.879.8910.418.69211.4610.159.158.519.579.478.298.10313.4211.4410.159.5910.129.4619.186.99centercenter00 GAS UTILITIESEQUITY RETURNS BY QUARTERQTRColumbiaPeoplesPECOUGIPeoples-EqtNFGUGI PennPeoples TWPENDACTADJACTADJACTADJACTADJACTADJACTADJACTADJACTADJ2010412.507.6710.219.9416.5211.888.788.6718.9711.299.5710.123.279.57111.7411.3419.6113.119.489.7819.8712.1113.0812.176.529.062011211.9710.7919.6713.9210.8110.7120.8312.9714.0812.656.106.9435.678.4712.5611.1518.2411.9810.409.9321.1613.0514.3211.485.786.67411.6912.0616.559.187.998.8919.6212.3414.019.356.755.5618.6511.248.9812.0915.718.952.298.0515.7610.5113.229.635.243.39201229.0010.178.7212.0313.609.905.517.5114.1010.0613.6310.404.576.4339.278.886.219.359.9813.4813.7910.055.847.7913.8810.3913.1610.667.027.41411.249.5712.4215.1013.689.447.278.0515.1110.1713.3110.635.056.94112.499.8914.6315.1314.6510.2712.428.4019.3310.2513.2810.582013210.857.1516.598.3514.4314.4013.0210.2110.408.9220.1810.2510.9810.2739.369.8617.398.7214.1414.0112.609.389.849.4819.6110.7210.5910.76410.6010.7816.3310.0214.3513.9716.089.2010.529.7620.5110.0713.4110.497.2112.23114.689.9415.2313.5216.818.3512.008.7323.119.7816.6710.0612.1911.872014213.059.7815.3213.2416.718.3913.548.4922.9712.0015.3010.9014.0612.32313.439.1615.4513.2116.638.6414.419.1521.3611.0313.7710.1515.0712.6249.719.9711.857.8913.8612.5915.007.9314.5212.4620.4010.7915.649.8216.9111.83114.227.9014.6013.0115.767.8715.3612.1420.1710.3115.579.5216.3611.232015214.378.8813.8912.3214.077.6214.0811.2618.8210.3913.768.9016.1512.90313.558.1413.2911.7715.676.5111.3010.8716.4110.2713.168.3215.6912.5849.759.738.809.8312.5012.7010.6010.0015.0110.599.177.2512.7112.14201617.0110.0210.7313.588.9810.2012.6010.977.858.858.5410.4826.249.9911.5513.858.2910.4012.3111.089.418.379.2010.4336.939.3412.0914.4013.0510.8213.0010.346.478.819.0712.02centercenter00WATER UTILITIESEQUITY RETURNS BY QUARTERQTRPAWCAQUASUEZYorkSuperiorENDACTADJACTADJACTADJACTADJACTADJ201049.188.5210.108.944.668.6910.411.2110.688.325.028.8110.811.12011210.927.934.728.6111.110.233.927.6910.910.247.698.0010.810.018.988.987.387.8410.79.5201229.069.067.307.6510.49.439.179.179.507.777.968.3810.59.149.549.0412.4112.568.338.4910.49.1113.2411.968.538.712013214.2612.528.999.158.577.85315.4912.218.839.017.466.85413.7711.978.439.0510.210.810.7110.01110.529.9813.2911.568.459.0210.210.213.129.972014210.5110.0213.0111.428.819.3210.710.717.099.61311.1110.5712.8211.298.579.0610.910.934.689.88410.499.3812.6211.498.909.4412.311.616.747.96110.339.1412.4611.119.119.8312.712.715.928.372015210.519.3112.6611.628.369.2512.712.714.658.93310.068.8112.4111.958.399.3713.613.612.549.3749.808.4812.6112.168.548.7712.5011.1012.739.502016110.128.6812.3111.719.2710.1912.4010.9011.918.1729.998.4711.7111.2111.0012.3712.2010.8012.077.9039.828.4711.5510.328.239.9912.2011.0014.997.25 centercenter00Attachment B includes:A. Overall Returns on rate base1. Actual2. Company proposed pro forma and ratemaking adjustmentsandB. Equity Returns1. Actual2. Company proposed pro forma and ratemaking adjustmentsSummary of ReturnsFor the Year Ended September 30, 2016?OVERALL RETURNEQUITY RETURNROEYEARCOMPANY NAMEACTUALADJ ACTUALADJAUTHAUTHELECTRIC??$10,000,000 RevenuesPECO Energy 9.047.9913.4211.44Settled2015PPL Electric Utilities Corp.7.667.3610.159.59Settled2015Duquesne Light Company7.587.2210.129.46Settled2014West Penn Power Company*Settled2015Pennsylvania Power Company* Settled2015UGI Utilities, Inc. 11.675.8719.186.99Settled1996Pennsylvania Electric Company* Settled2015Metropolitan Edison Company* Settled2015GAS$10,000,000 RevenuesColumbia Gas of PA, Inc.*Settled2015Peoples Natl Gas LLC5.876.816.939.34Settled2012PECO Energy8.409.6112.0914.40Settled2010UGI Utilities, Inc.*Settled1995Peoples-Equitable Division8.837.5213.0510.82Settled2008National Fuel Gas Distribution Co.9.167.7113.0010.34Settled2006UGI Penn Natural Gas, Inc.5.586.896.478.81Settled2009Peoples TWP, LLC6.678.059.0712.02Settled2013UGI Central Penn Gas, Inc.8.236.9511.028.91Settled2009WATER $10,000,000 RevenuesPA American Water Company7.947.239.828.47Settled2013AQUA Pennsylvania8.497.7911.5510.32Settled2012York Water Company9.608.9012.2011.00Settled2014SUEZ Water Pennsylvania, Inc.6.937.888.239.99Settled2009Superior Water Company, Inc.9.586.0714.997.25Settled2011* UGI Utilities, Inc. – Gas Division, Metropolitan Edison Company, Pennsylvania Electric Company, Pennsylvania Power Company, West Penn Power Company, and Columbia Gas have pending rate filings at Docket Nos. R-2015-2518438, R-2016-2537349, R20162537352, R2016-2537355, R-2016-2537359, and R-2016-2529660, respectively, and filed a letter with the Secretary in place of a report in accordance with 52?Pa. Code § 71.4.ALLOWED RATES OF RETURN ON COMMON EQUITY This is a historical chart that shows the most recent fully litigated rate cases for select companies in electric, gas, and water. A docket number followed by their final return on equity and year is also given. ELECTRICDocket NumberROE (%)Year Recent PA PUC AllowedPPL Electric Utilities Corp.R-2015-2469275Settled2015PECO Energy CompanyR-2015-2468981Settled2015UGI - ElectricR-00953524Settled1996Pennsylvania Electric CompanyR20142428743Settled2015Metropolitan Edison CompanyR20142428745Settled2015Pennsylvania Power CompanyR20142428744Settled2015West Penn Power CompanyR20142428742Settled2015 Current Market Indicated ROE as calculated by the 6.56-8.94Bureau of Technical Utility Services.GASRecent PA PUC AllowedColumbia Gas of Pa.R-2015-2468056Settled2015UGI Utilities, Inc. – GasR-00953297 Settled1995Peoples Natural GasR-2012-2285985 Settled2012UGI Penn Natural GasR-2008-2079660 Settled2009UGI Central Penn GasR-2008-2079675Settled2009PECO EnergyR-2010-2161592 Settled 2010Peoples TWPR-2013-2355886Settled2013Current Market Indicated ROE as calculated by the 5.63-13.26 Bureau of Technical Utility Services.WATERRecent PA PUC AllowedAqua Pennsylvania R-2011-2267958Settled2012PA American Water R-2013-2355276Settled2013Columbia Water R-2014-2445660Settled2015York Water R-2012-2336379Settled2014 Current Market Indicated ROE as calculated by the 7.47-10.58Bureau of Technical Utility Services.Distribution System Improvement Charge (DSIC) Eligible UtilitiesReturn on Equity (ROE) SummaryUtility AdjustedROE (%)Commission Approved ROE (%)ELECTRICPECO Energy11.449.55PPL Electric Utilities Corp.9.599.55Duquesne Light Company9.469.55West Penn Power Company*9.55Pennsylvania Power Company*9.55Pennsylvania Electric Company*9.55Metropolitan Edison Company*9.55GASColumbia Gas of PA, Inc.*9.80Peoples Natural Gas LLC9.349.80PECO Energy14.409.80UGI Utilities, Inc.*9.80Peoples-Equitable Division10.829.80UGI Penn Natural Gas, Inc.8.819.80Peoples TWP LLC12.029.80UGI Central Penn Gas, Inc.8.919.80WATER PA American Water Company8.479.65PA American - Wastewater8.479.65AQUA Pennsylvania10.329.65AQUA Pennsylvania - Wastewater0.709.65York Water Company11.009.65SUEZ Water Pennsylvania Inc.9.999.65Columbia Water+5.049.65Newtown Artesian Water+6.699.65Superior Water7.259.65* UGI Utilities, Inc. – Gas Division, Metropolitan Edison Company, Pennsylvania Electric Company, Pennsylvania Power Company, West Penn Power Company, and Columbia Gas have pending rate filings at Docket Nos. R-2015-2518438, R-2016-2537349, R20162537352, R 2016-2537355, R-2016-2537359, and R-2016-2529660, respectively, and filed a letter with the Secretary in place of a report in accordance with 52 Pa. Code § 71.4.+ These utilities have annual revenue less than $10 million and only file a year end, 4th quarter report.Explanation of Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) Barometer Group CriteriaThe criteria used for determining the industry barometer groups used to calculate ROEs in this report are as follows:50% or more of the company’s assets must be related to the jurisdictional utility industry;The company’s stock must be publically traded;Companies involved in merger & acquisition activity will be excluded;Investment information for the company must be available to the Commission from more than one source; andGeographic Regions:EDCs: Value Line East Group Electric Utility companies;NGDCs: Value Line Investment Survey’s Natural Gas Utility industry group companies;Water/Waste water: Value Line Investment Survey’s Water Utility industry group companies.The barometer group companies are reviewed by staff on a quarterly basis and make any changes to these companies based upon the criteria above. ROE Calculations The Commission consistently uses the DCF model to determine the appropriate cost of equity for utilities. In this report, the DSIC ROE is calculated using two DCF models. TUS uses the following formula to calculate the current dividend DCF: K = D1/P0 + G TUS uses the following formula to calculate the 52-week average dividend DCF: K = D1/Pa + GDefinitions:K= Cost of equityD1= Dividend expected during the year =D0 + ?gD0= Latest indicated dividend, obtained from Yahoo! Financeg=Expected 5-year dividend growth rate of barometer groupobtained from Value Line Investment Survey.P0= Current price of the stock, obtained from Yahoo! FinancePa=Average of high and low stock price over the latest 52-week period, obtained from Yahoo! FinanceG=Average of 5-year expected earnings growth rate forecasts obtained from Value Line Investment Survey, Zacks Investment Survey, Yahoo! Finance, Morningstar and/or Reuters.The CAPM uses the yield of a risk-free interest bearing obligation plus a rate of return premium that is proportional to the systematic risk of an investment. TUS uses the following formula to calculate CAPM: K = β(Rm-Rf)Three components are necessary to calculate the CAPM cost of equity: β = Beta, a measure of systematic risk for each stockRf= The risk-free rate of return, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields are used for Rf . Yields are taken from the previous two quarters and forecasted next four quarters. Rm=Total return of the equity market as determined by the SBBI Yearbook The Commission determines the ROE used for DSIC purposes based on the range of reasonableness from the DCF barometer group data, CAPM data, recent ROEs adjudicated by the Commission, and informed judgment.The market indicated common equity cost rate range consists of data used from the barometer groups and is based on a series of calculations to average the DCF methods.Historic Electric Industry Barometer Group DCF and CAPM Average ROEsLinear Trend Line Chart of Historic Electric Industry DCF and CAPM Average ROEsBarometer electric companies are used to calculate a current DCF in the first chart. The second chart demonstrates the companies 52 week average DCF. A final average of the two calculations is also shown at the bottom.Multiple sources of the Barometer companies projected 5 year Earnings Per Share are used to calculate the Group Average Dividend Growth Estimate.The market indicated common equity cost rate range consists of data used from the barometer groups and is based on a series of calculations to average the DCF methods.Historic Gas Industry DCF and CAPM Average ROEsLinear Trend Line Graph of Historic Gas Industry DCF and CAPM Average ROEs Barometer gas companies are used to calculate a current DCF in the first chart. The second chart demonstrates the companies 52 week average DCF. A final average of the two calculations is also shown at the bottom.Multiple sources of the Barometer companies projected 5 year Earnings Per Share are used to calculate the Group Average Dividend Growth Estimate.The market indicated common equity cost rate range consists of data used from the barometer groups and is based on a series of calculations to average the DCF methods.Historic Water Industry DCF and CAPM Average ROEsLinear Trend Line Chart of Historic Water Industry DCF and CAPM Average ROEsBarometer water companies are used to calculate a current DCF in the first chart. The second chart demonstrates the companies 52 week average DCF. A final average of the two calculations is also shown at the bottom.Multiple sources of the Barometer companies projected 5 year Earnings Per Share are used to calculate the Group Average Dividend Growth Estimate. ................
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