News release - Afrobarometer

[Pages:5]Harare, Zimbabwe 14 September 2022

News release

Young Zimbabweans far less likely than their elders to be registered and to intend to vote in 2023

Large majorities of Zimbabweans say they are registered to vote and intend to cast their ballots in the 2023 elections, a new Afrobarometer survey shows.

But young citizens are considerably less likely than their elders to report being registered, and only slightly more than half of 18- to 35-year-olds say they will probably or definitely vote.

As reported by citizens, both registration rates and intention to vote also vary considerably by province.

Among respondents who are registered to vote, a resounding majority say they will probably or definitely cast their votes in the upcoming elections.

Key findings

Nearly seven in 10 Zimbabwean adults (68%) say they are registered to vote in the

2023 elections (Figure 1).

o In addition, one-quarter (24%) say they intend to register, while 6% say they do not.

The middle-aged (83% of those aged 36-55 years) are more likely to be registered

than either their younger counterparts (54% of those aged 18-35 years) or the older generation (72% of those aged 56 years or more) (Figure 2).

o Slightly more women (70%) than men (66%) say they are registered to vote.

o Mashonaland Central has a larger proportion of registered adults (89%) than any other province.

Looking at those who are not registered to vote (Figure 3), more than half of

Masvingo (58%) and Bulawayo/Mat North/Mat South (53%) residents fall into this category. Rural residents (32%) are more likely to report not having registered to vote than their urban counterparts (25%), as are the youth (41%) compared to the middleaged (17%) and the elderly (27%).

o Economically better-off citizens (38%) are more likely to report being unregistered to vote than those experiencing moderate lived poverty (29%) or high lived poverty (22%).

o While only 17% of citizens with post-secondary education report being unregistered to vote, about twice as many of those with primary or no formal education (36%) or with secondary schooling (33%) say the same.

Two-thirds (67%) of citizens say they will "definitely" vote in the 2023 harmonised

elections. In addition, 19% say they will "probably" vote, and 7% they may or may not do so, while the rest say they will "probably" (2%) or "definitely" (5%) not vote (Figure 4).

Midlands (80%) and Masvingo (78%) have the largest shares of "definite" voters, while

the smallest proportion is recorded in Bulawayo/Mat North/Mat South (57%) (Figure 5).

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o The poorest citizens (75%) are more likely to say they will vote than their better-off counterparts (59%-66%). Young respondents (52%) are considerably less likely to indicate an intention to vote than their elders (77%-80%).

Overwhelming majorities of citizens who say they are registered (97%) or intend to

register (86%) say they will probably/definitely vote (Figure 6).

Afrobarometer surveys

Afrobarometer is a pan-African, non-partisan survey research network that provides reliable data on African experiences and evaluations of democracy, governance, and quality of life. Eight survey rounds in up to 39 countries have been completed since 1999. Round 9 surveys (2021/2022) are currently underway. Afrobarometer's national partners conduct face-toface interviews in the language of the respondent's choice.

The Afrobarometer team in Zimbabwe, led by the Mass Public Opinion Institute (MPOI), interviewed 1,200 adult citizens of Zimbabwe between 28 March and 10 April 2022. A sample of this size yields country-level results with a margin of error of +/-3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Previous surveys were conducted in Zimbabwe in 1999, 2004, 2005, 2009, 2012, 2014, 2017, and 2021.

Charts

Figure 1: Registered to vote in the 2023 elections? | Zimbabwe | 2022

100%

80%

Yes, I am registered

68% 60%

No, but l intend to register

40%

No, l do not intend to

register

20%

24%

Don't know/Refused to answer

6%

0%

3%

Respondents were asked: Are you registered to vote in the upcoming 2023 harmonised elections?

Figure 2: Registered to vote in the 2023 elections | by demographic group | Zimbabwe | 2022

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Average

Masvingo Bulawayo/Mat North/Mat South

Midlands Mashonaland East

Harare Mashonaland West

Manicaland Mashonaland Central

Women Men

56+ years 36-55 years 18-35 years

0%

68%

42% 46%

63% 66% 75% 83% 83% 89%

70% 66%

72% 83%

54%

20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Respondents were asked: Are you registered to vote in the upcoming 2023 harmonised elections? (% who say they are registered to vote)

Figure 3: Not registered to vote in the 2023 elections | by demographic group | Zimbabwe | 2022

Average Mashonaland Central

Harare Mashonaland West

Manicaland Mashonaland East

Midlands Bulawayo/Mat North/Mat South

Masvingo

29%

12% 13%

17% 17%

33% 35%

53% 58%

Urban Rural Men

Women 18-35 years 36-55 years

56+ years No or low lived poverty Moderate lived poverty

High lived poverty Primary/No formal education

Secondary education Post-secondary education

0%

25% 32%

29% 30%

41% 17%

27% 38%

29% 22%

36% 33% 17% 20% 40% 60%

80% 100%

Respondents were asked: Are you registered to vote in the upcoming 2023 harmonised elections? (% who say "No, but I intend to register" or "No I do not intend to register")

Figure 4: Likelihood of voting in the 2023 elections | Zimbabwe | 2022

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67%

19%

7% 2%5%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

I will definitely vote

I will probably vote

Maybe yes, maybe no

I will probably not vote I will definitely not vote

Respondents were asked: How likely are you to vote in the 2023 harmonised elections?

Figure 5: Likelihood of voting in the 2023 elections | by demographic group | Zimbabwe | 2022

Post-secondary education Secondary education

Primary/No formal education

67% 66%

71%

56+ years 36-55 years 18-35 years

77% 80%

52%

High lived poverty Moderate lived poverty No or low lived poverty

75% 66% 59%

Midlands Masvingo Mashonaland Central Mashonaland East

Harare Mashonaland West

Manicaland Bulawayo/Mat North/Mat South

0%

80% 78% 71% 66% 66% 63% 62% 57%

20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Respondents were asked: How likely are you to vote in the 2023 harmonised elections? (% who say "I will definitely vote")

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Figure 6: Likelihood of voting in the 2023 elections, by registration status | Zimbabwe | 2022

100%

97%

86%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0% Will probably/ definitely vote

2% Maybe

1%

Will probably/Will probably/

definitely not definitely

vote

vote

11% Maybe

3%

Will probably/ definitely not

vote

Among those who are registered

Among those who say they intend to register

Respondents were asked: Are you registered to vote in the upcoming 2023 harmonised elections? How likely are you to vote in the 2023 harmonised elections?

For more information, please contact:

Mass Public Opinion Institute E.V. Masunungure Telephone: +263-242-771358 Email: info@.zw

Visit us online at:

Follow our releases on #VoicesAfrica.

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