Projections of Education Statistics to 2022
Projections of Education
Statistics to 2022
Forty-first Edition
2019
2021
2019
2021
018
2020
2022
2018
2020
2022
NCES 2014-051
U . S . D E PA R T M E N T O F E D U C AT I O N
Projections of Education
Statistics to 2022
Forty-first Edition
FEBRUARY 2014
William J. Hussar
National Center for Education Statistics
Tabitha M. Bailey
IHS Global Insight
NCES 2014-051
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION
U.S. Department of Education
Arne Duncan
Secretary
Institute of Education Sciences
John Q. Easton
Director
National Center for Education Statistics
John Q. Easton
Acting Commissioner
The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) is the primary federal entity for collecting, analyzing, and reporting
data related to education in the United States and other nations. It fulfills a congressional mandate to collect, collate, analyze,
and report full and complete statistics on the condition of education in the United States; conduct and publish reports and
specialized analyses of the meaning and significance of such statistics; assist state and local education agencies in improving
their statistical systems; and review and report on education activities in foreign countries.
NCES activities are designed to address high-priority education data needs; provide consistent, reliable, complete, and
accurate indicators of education status and trends; and report timely, useful, and high-quality data to the U.S. Department
of Education, the Congress, the states, other education policymakers, practitioners, data users, and the general public. Unless
specifically noted, all information contained herein is in the public domain.
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February 2014
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This report was prepared in part under Contract No. ED-08-DO-0087 with IHS Global Insight. Mention of trade names,
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Suggested Citation
Hussar, W.J., and Bailey, T.M. (2013). Projections of Education Statistics to 2022 (NCES 2014-051). U.S. Department of Education,
National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
For ordering information on this report, write to
ED Pubs, U.S. Department of Education
P.O. Box 22207
Alexandria, VA 22304
or call toll free 1-877-4ED-PUBS or order online at .
Content Contact
William J. Hussar
(202) 502-7359
william.hussar@
Foreword
Projections of Education Statistics to 2022 is the 41st report
in a series begun in 1964. It includes statistics on elementary
and secondary schools and postsecondary degree-granting
institutions. This report provides revisions of projections
shown in Projections of Education Statistics to 2021 and
projections of enrollment, graduates, teachers, and
expenditures to the year 2022.
In addition to projections at the national level, the report
includes projections of public elementary and secondary
school enrollment and public high school graduates to the
year 2022 at the state level. The projections in this report
were produced by the National Center for Education
Statistics (NCES) to provide researchers, policy analysts,
and others with state-level projections developed using a
consistent methodology. They are not intended to supplant
detailed projections prepared for individual states.
Appendix A of this report outlines the projection methodology
and describes the models and assumptions used to develop
the national and state projections. The enrollment models use
enrollment data and population estimates and projections from
NCES and the U.S. Census Bureau. The models are based on
the mathematical projection of past data patterns into the future.
The models also use projections of economic variables from
IHS Global Insight, an economic forecasting service.
The projections presented in this report are based on the
2010 census and assumptions for the fertility rate, internal
migration, net immigration, and mortality rate from the
Census Bureau. For further information, see appendix A.
John Q. Easton, Acting Commissioner
National Center for Education Statistics
Assumptions regarding the population and the economy are
the key factors underlying the projections of education statistics.
NCES projections do not reflect changes in national, state,
or local education policies that may affect education statistics.
Projections of Education Statistics to 2022??? iii
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