Projections of Education Statistics to 2028
A Publication of the National Center for Education Statistics at IES
Projections of Education
Statistics to 2028
Forty-seventh Edition
NCES 2020-024
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION
Projections of Education
Statistics to 2028
Forty-seventh Edition
MAY 2020
William J. Hussar
National Center for Education Statistics
Tabitha M. Bailey
IHS Global Inc.
NCES 2020-024
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION
U.S. Department of Education
Betsy DeVos
Secretary of Education
Institute of Education Sciences
Mark Schneider
Director
National Center for Education Statistics
James L. Woodworth
Commissioner
The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) is the primary federal entity for collecting, analyzing, and reporting
data related to education in the United States and other nations. It fulfills a congressional mandate to collect, collate,
analyze, and report full and complete statistics on the condition of education in the United States; conduct and publish
reports and specialized analyses of the meaning and significance of such statistics; assist state and local education agencies in
improving their statistical systems; and review and report on education activities in foreign countries.
NCES activities are designed to address high-priority education data needs; provide consistent, reliable, complete, and
accurate indicators of education status and trends; and report timely, useful, and high-quality data to the U.S. Department
of Education, the Congress, the states, other education policymakers, practitioners, data users, and the general public.
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Suggested Citation
Hussar, W.J., and Bailey, T.M. (2020). Projections of Education Statistics to 2028 (NCES 2020-024). U.S. Department of Education,
Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics.
Content Contact
William J. Hussar
(202) 245-6389
william.hussar@
Foreword
Projections of Education Statistics to 2028 is the 47th report
in a series begun in 1964. It includes statistics on
elementary and secondary schools and degree-granting
postsecondary institutions. This report provides revisions
of projections shown in Projections of Education Statistics to
2027 and projections of enrollment, graduates, teachers,
and expenditures to the year 2028.
In addition to projections at the national level, the report
includes projections of public elementary and secondary
school enrollment and public high school graduates to the
year 2028 at the state level. The projections in this report
were produced by the National Center for Education
Statistics (NCES) to provide researchers, policy analysts,
and others with state-level projections developed using a
consistent methodology. They are not intended to supplant
detailed projections prepared for individual states.
Assumptions regarding the population and the economy
are the key factors underlying the projections of education
statistics. NCES projections do not reflect changes in
national, state, or local education policies that may affect
education statistics.
Appendix A of this report outlines the projection
methodology and describes the models and assumptions
used to develop the national and state projections. The
enrollment models use enrollment data and population
estimates and projections from NCES, the U.S. Census
Bureau, and the forecasting service IHS Global Inc. The
models are based on the mathematical projection of
past data patterns into the future. Some models also use
projections of economic variables from IHS Global Inc.
The projections presented in this report are based on
assumptions for the fertility rate, internal migration, net
immigration, and mortality rate from the Census Bureau.
For further information, see appendix A.
James L. Woodworth, Commissioner
National Center for Education Statistics
Projections of Education Statistics to 2028
iii
Contents
Page
Foreword .........................................................................................................................................................................iii
List of Reference Tables ................................................................................................................................................... vi
List of Figures ................................................................................................................................................................... x
About This Report ............................................................................................................................................................1
Projections ...............................................................................................................................................................1
Limitations of Projections ........................................................................................................................................1
Section 1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment ....................................................................................................2
Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................2
Accuracy of Projections ............................................................................................................................................2
National ..................................................................................................................................................................3
State and Regional (Public School Data) ..................................................................................................................5
Race/Ethnicity (Public School Data) .......................................................................................................................7
Section 2. Elementary and Secondary Teachers .........................................................................................................8
Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................8
Accuracy of Projections ............................................................................................................................................8
Teachers in Elementary and Secondary Schools .......................................................................................................9
Section 3. High School Graduates ...........................................................................................................................12
Introduction ..........................................................................................................................................................12
Accuracy of Projections ..........................................................................................................................................12
National ................................................................................................................................................................13
State and Regional (Public School Data) ................................................................................................................14
Race/Ethnicity (Public School Data) .....................................................................................................................16
Section 4. Expenditures for Public Elementary and Secondary Education ..............................................................17
Introduction ..........................................................................................................................................................17
Accuracy of Projections ..........................................................................................................................................17
Current Expenditures ............................................................................................................................................18
Section 5. Enrollment in Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions ...................................................................20
Introduction ..........................................................................................................................................................20
Accuracy of Projections ..........................................................................................................................................20
Total Enrollment ...................................................................................................................................................21
Enrollment by Selected Characteristics and Control of Institution .........................................................................22
First-Time Freshmen Enrollment ...........................................................................................................................27
Full-Time-Equivalent Enrollment, by Control of Institution .................................................................................28
iv
Contents
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