Projections of Education Statistics to 2028

A Publication of the National Center for Education Statistics at IES

Projections of Education

Statistics to 2028

Forty-seventh Edition

NCES 2020-024

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION

Projections of Education

Statistics to 2028

Forty-seventh Edition

MAY 2020

William J. Hussar

National Center for Education Statistics

Tabitha M. Bailey

IHS Global Inc.

NCES 2020-024

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION

U.S. Department of Education

Betsy DeVos

Secretary of Education

Institute of Education Sciences

Mark Schneider

Director

National Center for Education Statistics

James L. Woodworth

Commissioner

The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) is the primary federal entity for collecting, analyzing, and reporting

data related to education in the United States and other nations. It fulfills a congressional mandate to collect, collate,

analyze, and report full and complete statistics on the condition of education in the United States; conduct and publish

reports and specialized analyses of the meaning and significance of such statistics; assist state and local education agencies in

improving their statistical systems; and review and report on education activities in foreign countries.

NCES activities are designed to address high-priority education data needs; provide consistent, reliable, complete, and

accurate indicators of education status and trends; and report timely, useful, and high-quality data to the U.S. Department

of Education, the Congress, the states, other education policymakers, practitioners, data users, and the general public.

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Suggested Citation

Hussar, W.J., and Bailey, T.M. (2020). Projections of Education Statistics to 2028 (NCES 2020-024). U.S. Department of Education,

Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics.

Content Contact

William J. Hussar

(202) 245-6389

william.hussar@

Foreword

Projections of Education Statistics to 2028 is the 47th report

in a series begun in 1964. It includes statistics on

elementary and secondary schools and degree-granting

postsecondary institutions. This report provides revisions

of projections shown in Projections of Education Statistics to

2027 and projections of enrollment, graduates, teachers,

and expenditures to the year 2028.

In addition to projections at the national level, the report

includes projections of public elementary and secondary

school enrollment and public high school graduates to the

year 2028 at the state level. The projections in this report

were produced by the National Center for Education

Statistics (NCES) to provide researchers, policy analysts,

and others with state-level projections developed using a

consistent methodology. They are not intended to supplant

detailed projections prepared for individual states.

Assumptions regarding the population and the economy

are the key factors underlying the projections of education

statistics. NCES projections do not reflect changes in

national, state, or local education policies that may affect

education statistics.

Appendix A of this report outlines the projection

methodology and describes the models and assumptions

used to develop the national and state projections. The

enrollment models use enrollment data and population

estimates and projections from NCES, the U.S. Census

Bureau, and the forecasting service IHS Global Inc. The

models are based on the mathematical projection of

past data patterns into the future. Some models also use

projections of economic variables from IHS Global Inc.

The projections presented in this report are based on

assumptions for the fertility rate, internal migration, net

immigration, and mortality rate from the Census Bureau.

For further information, see appendix A.

James L. Woodworth, Commissioner

National Center for Education Statistics

Projections of Education Statistics to 2028

iii

Contents

Page

Foreword .........................................................................................................................................................................iii

List of Reference Tables ................................................................................................................................................... vi

List of Figures ................................................................................................................................................................... x

About This Report ............................................................................................................................................................1

Projections ...............................................................................................................................................................1

Limitations of Projections ........................................................................................................................................1

Section 1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment ....................................................................................................2

Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................2

Accuracy of Projections ............................................................................................................................................2

National ..................................................................................................................................................................3

State and Regional (Public School Data) ..................................................................................................................5

Race/Ethnicity (Public School Data) .......................................................................................................................7

Section 2. Elementary and Secondary Teachers .........................................................................................................8

Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................8

Accuracy of Projections ............................................................................................................................................8

Teachers in Elementary and Secondary Schools .......................................................................................................9

Section 3. High School Graduates ...........................................................................................................................12

Introduction ..........................................................................................................................................................12

Accuracy of Projections ..........................................................................................................................................12

National ................................................................................................................................................................13

State and Regional (Public School Data) ................................................................................................................14

Race/Ethnicity (Public School Data) .....................................................................................................................16

Section 4. Expenditures for Public Elementary and Secondary Education ..............................................................17

Introduction ..........................................................................................................................................................17

Accuracy of Projections ..........................................................................................................................................17

Current Expenditures ............................................................................................................................................18

Section 5. Enrollment in Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions ...................................................................20

Introduction ..........................................................................................................................................................20

Accuracy of Projections ..........................................................................................................................................20

Total Enrollment ...................................................................................................................................................21

Enrollment by Selected Characteristics and Control of Institution .........................................................................22

First-Time Freshmen Enrollment ...........................................................................................................................27

Full-Time-Equivalent Enrollment, by Control of Institution .................................................................................28

iv

Contents

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