Projections of Education Statistitcs to 2026

Projections of Education

Statistics to 2026

Forty-fifth Edition

2023

2025

2023

2025

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2024

2026

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2024

2026

NCES 2018-019

U . S . D E PA R T M E N T O F E D U C AT I O N

Projections of Education

Statistics to 2026

Forty-fifth Edition

April 2018

William J. Hussar

National Center for Education Statistics

Tabitha M. Bailey

IHS Global Inc.

NCES 2018-019

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION

U.S. Department of Education

Betsy DeVos

Secretary of Education

Institute of Education Sciences

Thomas Brock

Commissioner of the National Center for Education Research

Delegated the Duties of the Director

National Center for Education Statistics

James L. Woodworth

Commissioner

The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) is the primary federal entity for collecting, analyzing, and reporting

data related to education in the United States and other nations. It fulfills a congressional mandate to collect, collate, analyze,

and report full and complete statistics on the condition of education in the United States; conduct and publish reports and

specialized analyses of the meaning and significance of such statistics; assist state and local education agencies in improving

their statistical systems; and review and report on education activities in foreign countries.

NCES activities are designed to address high-priority education data needs; provide consistent, reliable, complete, and

accurate indicators of education status and trends; and report timely, useful, and high-quality data to the U.S. Department

of Education, the Congress, the states, other education policymakers, practitioners, data users, and the general public. Unless

specifically noted, all information contained herein is in the public domain.

We strive to make our products available in a variety of formats and in language that is appropriate to a variety of audiences.

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NCES, IES, U.S. Department of Education

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Washington, DC 20202

April 2018

The NCES Home Page address is .

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This report was prepared in part under Contract No. ED-IES-14-O-5005 with IHS Global Inc. Mention of trade names,

commercial products, or organizations does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

Suggested Citation

Hussar, W.J., and Bailey, T.M. (2018). Projections of Education Statistics to 2026 (NCES 2018-019). U.S. Department of Education,

Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics.

Content Contact

William J. Hussar

(202) 245-6389

william.hussar@

Foreword

Projections of Education Statistics to 2026 is the 45th report

in a series begun in 1964. It includes statistics on elementary

and secondary schools and degree-granting postsecondary

institutions. This report provides revisions of projections

shown in Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 and

projections of enrollment, graduates, teachers, and

expenditures to the year 2026.

In addition to projections at the national level, the report

includes projections of public elementary and secondary

school enrollment and public high school graduates to the

year 2026 at the state level. The projections in this report

were produced by the National Center for Education

Statistics (NCES) to provide researchers, policy analysts,

and others with state-level projections developed using a

consistent methodology. They are not intended to supplant

detailed projections prepared for individual states.

Assumptions regarding the population and the economy are

the key factors underlying the projections of education statistics.

NCES projections do not reflect changes in national, state,

or local education policies that may affect education statistics.

Appendix A of this report outlines the projection methodology

and describes the models and assumptions used to develop

the national and state projections. The enrollment models

use enrollment data and population estimates and projections

from NCES, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the economic

forecasting service IHS Global Inc. The models are based on

the mathematical projection of past data patterns into the future.

The models also use projections of economic variables from

IHS Global Inc.

The projections presented in this report are based on

assumptions for the fertility rate, internal migration, net

immigration, and mortality rate from the Census Bureau.

For further information, see appendix A.

Thomas D. Snyder, Supervisor

Annual Reports and Information Staff

National Center for Education Statistics

Projections of Education Statistics to 2026

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