Shandong, China Electric Sector Simulation Assumption Book

Shandong, China Electric Sector Simulation

Assumption Book

August 2002

MIT LFEE 2002-002 RP

Massachusetts Institute of Technology Laboratory for Energy and the Environment

77 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02139-4307 Publication No. LFEE 2002-002 RP

ALLIANCE FOR GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY

SHANDONG, CHINA ELECTRIC SECTOR SIMULATION ASSUMPTIONS BOOK

CHINA ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PROGRAM

MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

Laboratory for Energy and the Environment

Analysis Group for Regional Electricity Alternatives

MIT Stephen Connors, Chia-Chin Cheng, Christopher Hansen, Jennifer Barker

ETH-Z?rich Warren Schenler

August 2002

SHANDONG, CHINA ? ELECTRIC SECTOR SIMULATION ASSUMPTIONS BOOK Table of Contents

CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEW OF ELECTRIC SECTOR SIMULATION TASK AND SHANDONG SCENARIOS

Introduction ................................................................................................................................................1.1 Scenario-Based Multi-Attribute Tradeoff Analysis...............................................................................1.1 Overview of Shandong ESS Scenarios ....................................................................................................1.5 Overview of Shandong ESS Attributes...................................................................................................1.5 An Overview of Shandong Province ......................................................................................................1.12

(1.15)

CHAPTER 2: FUTURE FOSSIL AND NUCLEAR GENERATION TECHNOLOGY CHARACTERISTICS AND COSTS

Introduction ................................................................................................................................................2.1 Cross-Cutting Technological Assumptions ...........................................................................................2.2

Sulfur Control Technologies..........................................................................................................2.2 Particulate Control Systems ..........................................................................................................2.3 Nitrogen Oxides Control Systems ................................................................................................2.4 Solid Waste.......................................................................................................................................2.4 Cooling Systems ..............................................................................................................................2.5 Future Generation Technologies..............................................................................................................2.5 Conventional Coal Generation......................................................................................................2.5 Clean Coal Technologies................................................................................................................2.6 Oil Fuel Generation Technologies ................................................................................................2.7 Natural Gas Generation Technologies.........................................................................................2.7 Nuclear Power Generation Technologies....................................................................................2.8 Technology Availability In Shandong ....................................................................................................2.9 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................................2.10

(2.10)

CHAPTER 3: FUTURE ALTERNATIVE FUELED AND RENEWABLE GENERATION CHARACTERISTICS AND COSTS

Introduction ................................................................................................................................................3.1 Coal Bed Methane ......................................................................................................................................3.2 Biomass ........................................................................................................................................................3.3

Shandong Biomass Resources .......................................................................................................3.3 Municipal Solid Waste ..............................................................................................................................3.3

Shandong Population, Income And Solid Waste Production ..................................................3.4 Chinese MSW Characteristics And Trends .................................................................................3.5 Municipal Solid Waste Fuel And Energy Conversion Technologies ......................................3.6 Direct Combustion of MSW ..............................................................................................................3.6 Standard Landfill Gas Production.....................................................................................................3.7 Bioreactor Landfill Gas Production ...................................................................................................3.8 Anaerobic Digestion .......................................................................................................................3.11 Windpower .................................................................................................................................................3.12

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AGREA ? MIT ANALYSIS GROUP FOR REGIONAL ELECTRICITY ALTERNATIVES

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Wind Turbine Technology.............................................................................................................3.13 Windpower Economics ..................................................................................................................3.13 Solar and Hydro for Power Generation in Shandong ..........................................................................3.14 Technology Economics and Deployment...............................................................................................3.14

(3.15)

CHAPTER 4: SULFUR CONTROLS ON EXISTING AND NEW GENERATION

Introduction ...............................................................................................................................................4.1 Regulatory Background ............................................................................................................................4.1 Candidate Flue Gas Desulfurization Technologies..............................................................................4.1 Determining Costs .....................................................................................................................................4.3 Modeling Approach...................................................................................................................................4.5 Modeling Assumptions.............................................................................................................................4.5 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................................4.6

(4.6)

CHAPTER 5: PARTICULATE MATTER CONTROLS ON EXISTING AND NEW GENERATION

Introduction ................................................................................................................................................5.1 Classification Of Particulate Matter Emissions From Power Plants...................................................5.1

1. PM Categorization By Source And Formation Mechanism .................................................5.1 2. PM Categorization By Chemical Composition.......................................................................5.1 3. PM Categorization By Particle Size ..........................................................................................5.2 Particulate Matter Control ........................................................................................................................5.3 Wet Particulate Scrubbers..............................................................................................................5.3 Cyclones ...........................................................................................................................................5.3 Electrostatic Precipitator ...............................................................................................................5.3 Baghouse ..........................................................................................................................................5.4 Model Inputs...............................................................................................................................................5.4 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................................5.4

(5.5)

CHAPTER 6: CLASSIFICATION OF STEAM COAL FOR ELECTRIC SECTOR SIMULATION SCENARIOS

Introduction ................................................................................................................................................6.1 What Is Coal?..............................................................................................................................................6.1 Types of Steam Coal ..................................................................................................................................6.4 Approximating Chinese Coal Characteristics........................................................................................6.8

Total Carbon ....................................................................................................................................6.8 Fixed Carbon....................................................................................................................................6.9 Ash Content .....................................................................................................................................6.9 Sulfur Content .................................................................................................................................6.10 Moisture Content ............................................................................................................................6.11 Volatile Matter.................................................................................................................................6.11 Classification of Coals For Electric Sector Simulation ..........................................................................6.11 Overview of Coal Preparation Technologies .........................................................................................6.14 Determining Properties of Prepared Coal..............................................................................................6.15 Proximate Properties ......................................................................................................................6.16 Sulfur Content .................................................................................................................................6.16

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AGREA ? MIT ANALYSIS GROUP FOR REGIONAL ELECTRICITY ALTERNATIVES

(pg. TOC.2)

Total Carbon and Lower Heating Value .....................................................................................6.16 The Impacts of Coal Pretreatment ...........................................................................................................6.16 Emissions from Coal Combustion ...........................................................................................................6.18

(6.18)

CHAPTER 7: COAL COST ASSUMPTIONS AND COAL COST UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPMENT

Introduction ................................................................................................................................................7.1 Background ................................................................................................................................................7.2 Determination of Coal Costs ....................................................................................................................7.2 Uncertainties for Future Steam Coal Costs ............................................................................................7.4 Uncertainties for Future Coal Transportation Cost ..............................................................................7.8

(7.10)

CHAPTER 8: NON-COAL FUELS: CHARACTERISTICS AND COSTS

Introduction ...............................................................................................................................................8.1 Petroleum Fuels .........................................................................................................................................8.1 Natural Gas ................................................................................................................................................8.2 Nuclear Fuel................................................................................................................................................8.2 Fuel Cost Escalation Trajectories .............................................................................................................8.3 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................................8.6

(8.6)

CHAPTER 9: ELECTRICITY DEMAND AND END-USE EFFICIENCY ASSUMPTIONS AND UNCERTAINTIES

Introduction ...............................................................................................................................................9.1 Modeling Long-Term Electricity Demand Growth ..............................................................................9.1 Modeling Peak-Load Demand Growth ..................................................................................................9.6 Modeling End-Use Efficiency...................................................................................................................9.7

(9.15)

REFERENCES

(R.5)

APPENDIX A: GENERATION TECHNOLOGY CHARACTERISTICS AND COSTS

(A.8)

APPENDIX B: FLUE GAS DESULFURIZATION CHARACTERISTICS AND COSTS

(B.3)

APPENDIX C: ESS MODELING ASSUMPTIONS FOR STEAM COAL

(C.6)

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(pg. TOC.3)

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