Structural Uncertainty in Seismic Risk Analysis Seismic Safety Margins ...

[Pages:49]XA04NO050

NUREG/CR-1560 UCRL-15218

INIS-XA-N--033

Structural Uncertainty in Seismic Risk Analysis Seismic Safety Margins Research Program

T. K. Hasselman and S. S. Simonian J. H. Wiggins Company Prepared for U.S. Ndear Replatory CommWon

LAW 3EACE UVERMORE LABORATORY

NOTICE This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, or any of their employees, makes any warranty, expressed or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for any third party's use, or the results of such use, of any information, apparatus product or process disclosed in this report, or represents that its use by such third party would not infringe privately owned rights. This work was supported by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission under a Memorandum of Understanding with the United States Department of Energy.

Available from GPO Sales Program Division of Technical Information and Document Control U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D.C. 20555

and National Technical Information Service

Springfield, Virginia 22161

NUREG/CR-1560 UCRL 15218 RN, RO AN

Structural Uncertainty in Seismic Risk Analysis

Seismic Safety Margins Research Program

Manuscript Completed: March 1980 Date Published:

Prepared by T. K. Hasselman and S. S. Simonian J. H. Wiggins Company

Lawrence Livermore Laboratory 7000 East Avenue Livermore, CA 94550

Prepared for

MERB

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D.C. 20555 NRC FIN No. A0130

ABSTRACT

This report documents the formulation of a methodology for modeling and evaluating the effects of structural uncertainty on predicted modal characteristics of the major structures and substructures of commerical nuclear power plants. The uncertainties are cast in the form of normalized random variables which represent the demonstrated ability to predict modal frequencies, damping and modal response amplitudes for broad generic types of structures (steel frame, reinforced concrete and prestressed concrete). Data based on observed differences between predicted and measured structural performance at the member, substructure, and/or major structural system levels are used to quantify uncertainties and thus form the data base for statistical analysis. Proper normalization enables data from non-nuclear structures, e.g., office buildings, to be included in the data base. Numerous alternative methods are defined within the general framework of this methodology.

The report also documents the results of a data survey to identify, classify and evaluate available data for the required data base. A bibliography of 95 references is included. Deficiencies in the currently identified data base are exposed, and remedial easures suggested. Recommendations are made for implementation of the methodology.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

SUMMARY

1.

INTRODUCTION

1.1

Background and Problem Statement

1.2

Objectives

1.3

Scope

2.

ORGANIZATION OF AVAILABLE DATA

2.1

Sources of Uncertainty

2.2

Sources and Types of Data

2.3

Classification of Data

3.

ANALYTICAL FORMULATION

3.1

Coordinate Systems and Equations of Motion

3.2

Selection of Parameters to Represent Structural

Uncertainty

3.3

Alternative Parameters for Representing

Structural Uncertainty

3.4

General Methodology for Evaluating Structural

Uncertainty

4. 4.1 4.1.1 4.1.2

4.2

IMPLEMENTATION Assessment of Available Data

Member Level Data (Table 41) Substructure and Major Structure Data (Tables 4-2 and 43) Potential Benefits from Additional Data

5.

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

5.1

Conclusions

5.2

Recommendations

Page xi

1-1 1-1 1-4 1-6

2-1 2-1 2-6 2-24

3-1 3-4 3-11

3-21

3-24

4-1 4-1 4-1 4-3

4-8

5-1 5-1 5-5

v

TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued)

BIBLIOGRAPHY APPENDIX A - ILLUSTRATION OF OPTION 4

Page

R-1 A-1

vi

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