REGIONAL SEISMIC HAZARD AND RISK ANALYSIS THROUGH GEOGRAPHIC ...

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PB95-183612

The John A. Blume Earthquake Engineering Center

Department of Civil Engineering Stanford University

REGIONAL SEISMIC HAZARD AND RISK ANALYSIS THROUGH GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS

by Stephanie A. King

and Anne S. Kiremidjian

This research was partially supported by The National Science Foundation Grant No. EID-9024032 and The John A. Blume Earthquake Engineering Center Stanford, CA

REPRODUCED BY:

Nl1S.

u.s. Department of Commerce-----

National Technicallnfonnation Service

Springfield, Virginia 22161

Report No. 111 June 1994

The John A. Blume Earthquake Engineering Center was established to promote research and education in earthquake engineering. Through its activities our understanding of earthquakes and their effects on mankind's facilities and structures is improving. The Center conducts research, provides instruction, publishes reports and articles, conducts seminars and conferences, and provides financial support for students. The Center is named for Dr. John A. Blume, a well-known consulting engineer and Stanford alumnus.

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The John A. Blume Earthquake Engineering Center Department of Civil Engineering Stanford University Stanford, California 94305

BIBLIOGRAPHIC INFORMATION PB95-183612

Report Nos: Title: Regional Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis through Geographic Information Systems. Date: Jun 94 Authors: S. A. King and A. S. Kiremidjian. Performing Organization: Stanford Univ .. CA. John A. Blume Earthquake Engineering Center. Sponsoring Organization: *National Science Foundation. Arlington. VA. Contract Nos: NSF-EIO-9024032 Supplemental Notes: Also pub. as Stanford Univ .. CA. John A. Blume Earthquake Engineering Center rept. no. REPT-lll.

NTIS Field/Group Codes: 48F (Geology &Geophysics). 481 (Cartography). 890 (Structural

Analyses) Price: PC A09/MF A02 Availability: Available from the National Technical Information Service, Springfield, VA. 22161 Number of Pages: 188p Keywords: *Geographic information systems, *Risk analysis. *Ground motion. *Earthquakes. *Site characterization. Seismic effects. Seismic waves, Earthquake damage. Seismicity, Soil structure interactions. Structural analysis. Computerized simulation, Mathematical models. Case studies. *Seismic hazards. Abstract: A geographic information system (GIS) provides the ideal environment for conducting a comprehensive regional seismic hazard and risk analysis. This disseration describes in detail the current GIS technology and the various steps in a regional seismic hazard and risk analysis. An overview of the different models for estimating the effects of local site conditions is presented. This research includes the development and example illustration of a GIS-based methodology for quantifying and combining the hazards associated with these secondary site effects. The methodology to combine the various hazards is based on a weighted average approach that utilizes the knowledge of local experts. This dissertation also covers the estimation of regional earthquake damage and loss. including the development of a methodology for compiling a comprehensive inventory of structures in a large region.

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PB95-183612

REGIONAL SEISMIC HAZARD AND RISK ANALYSIS THROUGH GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS

by

Stephanie A. King and Anne S. Kiremidjian

This research was partially supported by

The National Science Foundation Grant No. EID-9024032 and The John A. Blume

Earthquake Engineering Center

Report No. 111 June 1994

111111111111111111111111I111111

PB95-183612

ABSTRACT

A geographic information system (GIS) provides the ideal environment for conducting a comprehensive regional seismic hazard and risk analysis. A GIS has the ability to store, manipulate, analyze, and display the large amount of required spatial and tabular data. The system can typically be linked to external computational programs, high level database management systems, and knowledge-based expert systems. The objective of this research is the development of a methodology for using geographic information system technology to conduct a regional multi-hazard seismic risk analysis. The term multi-hazard refers to the consideration of ground shaking and the secondary site effects of soil amplification, liquefaction, landslide, and surface fault rupture. The methodology involves a modular framework that allows new models and database information to be included as the technology advances.

This dissertation describes in detail the current GIS technology and the various steps in a regional seismic hazard and risk analysis. An overview of the different models for estimating the effects of local site conditions is presented. This research includes the development and example illustration of a GIS-based methodology for quantifying and combining the hazards associated with these secondary site effects. The methodology to combine the various hazards is based on a weighted average approach that utilizes the knowledge of local experts. This dissertation also covers the estimation of regional earthquake damage and loss, including the development of a methodology for compiling a comprehensive inventory of structures in a large region.

A substantial part of this dissertation is devoted to a case study that illustrates the ideas and methodologies developed in this research. The case study is an earthquake damage and loss study for a magnitude 7.5 event on the Wasatch fault in Salt Lake County, Utah. The various seismic hazards are quantified and integrated, and a structural inventory of nearly 195,000 buildings is compiled. Numerous maps and tables of inventory data and results are included to help prove the effectiveness of the GIS for

ABSTRACT

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conducting a large regional earthquake hazard and risk analysis. The final loss estimates appear to be reasonable when compared to recent large earthquakes in metropolitan areas.

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