Fragility curves as a tool for seismic risk analysis of civil ...

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Fragility curves as a tool for seismic risk analysis of civil engineering structures

Workshop on Resilience engineering Paris, November 19, 2013

Other Conference Item Author(s):

Stojadinovic, Bozidar ; Mai, Chu V. Publication date: 2013 Permanent link: Rights / license: In Copyright - Non-Commercial Use Permitted

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DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL, ENVIRONMENTAL AND GEOMATIC ENGINEERING CHAIR OF RISK, SAFETY & UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION

Fragility curves as a tool for seismic risk analysis of civil engineering structures

Chu V. Mai1, Bruno Sudret1 & Bozidar Stojadinovic2

1Chair of Risk, Safety & Uncertainty Quantification 2Chair of Structural Dynamics & Earthquake Engineering

Workshop on Resilience engineering Paris, November 19, 2013

Resilience engineering

(Hollnagel, 2011)

Anticipating

Monitoring

Responding

Learning

1 Anticipating the threats and their consequences 2 Monitoring the threats by means of indicators and measures 3 Learning lessons from the experience, from the successes as well as failures 4 Responding to the disruptions by means of a set of predefined solutions or

by adjusting the normal functioning

Resilience earthquake engineering

1 Anticipating the earthquakes and their consequences:

Awareness of the seismic risk Severity, magnitude of the earthquakes Consequences

2 Monitoring the earthquakes (which contain huge uncertainties):

Mechanism: occurrence, propagation Attenuation relationships: estimates of maximum response parameters, e.g. PGA, for a given site Seismic hazard curves: annual frequency that an earthquake exceeding certain magnitude occurs Earthquake features: magnitude, frequency content, etc. Prediction of ground motions at a given site using probabilistic model

Resilience earthquake engineering

3 Learning from the past:

Observation, estimation of damages Analysis of observed damages

Fragility curves are an important tool for representing the seismic damages (Rossetto and Elnashai, 2003; Shinozuka et al., 2000)

4 Responding to the earthquakes (knowing what to do) based on the understanding (monitoring) of the earthquakes as well as experience from the past: Propose measures and solutions (retrofitting, optimizing design parameters, etc. ) Evaluate the effectiveness of the measures and the capacity of the systems

Fragility curves are an important tool for evaluating the efficiency of technical solutions (Dukes, DesRoches, and Padgett, 2012; Gu?neyisi and Altay, 2008; Padgett and DesRoches,

2008)

5 Capacity to recover quickly from earthquakes: depending on multiple factors including the damage levels of the systems which can be estimated by fragility curves.

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